I’ve been watching the world’s financial chessboard tilt for a while now, and the latest move is a stunner: central banks globally are holding more gold than US Treasuries for the first time since 1996. According to the Financial Express, as of May 2025, central banks have amassed 36,344 tonnes of gold, valued at over $3.6 trillion. This figure now exceeds the estimated $3.8 trillion in foreign Treasury holdings. This isn’t just a statistic – it is a seismic shift, a quiet rebellion against the dollar’s iron grip on global finance. And let me tell you, it’s got me thinking about history, power plays, and the growing murmurs of de-dollarization, especially among the RIC trio: Russia, India, and China. Throw in Trump’s chaotic tariffs and his unwitting nudge toward their collaboration, and we are looking at a new chapter in the global economic saga.
The Ghost of Roosevelt’s 6102
Rewind to the 1930s, when Franklin D. Roosevelt pulled a move that still echoes in today’s gold rush. In 1933, with the Great Depression biting hard, Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102, effectively snatching gold from American citizens. Private gold ownership was outlawed, and folks were forced to sell their bullion to the government at a measly $20.67 per ounce. The proclaimed goal? Bolster the Federal Reserve’s reserves and stabilize the dollar. And just before World War II, European nations were pushed to send their gold across the Atlantic to the US for safekeeping from Hitler, only for much of it to stay there, cementing America’s financial dominance.
Fast-forward to 2025, and gold’s back in the spotlight, but for different reasons. Central banks aren’t just hoarding gold to back their currencies; they’re hedging against a wobbling dollar. The World Gold Council’s 2025 survey says 43% of central bankers plan to boost gold reserves in the next year. Why? Because gold can’t be frozen or sanctioned, unlike dollar assets. Russia learned that the hard way in 2022 when its dollar and euro reserves were locked up. The US’s ballooning $37 trillion debt doesn’t help either, raising eyebrows about its fiscal sanity. Gold’s a safe bet when trust in fiat currencies, especially the dollar, starts to crack.
Trump’s Tariffs: The Unexpected Catalyst
Enter Donald Trump, with his “Big and Beautiful” bill and tariff tantrums. His trade wars, especially with China, have sent the Dollar Index tumbling to a three-year low below 100. By slapping 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and pressuring the Fed to slash rates, Trump’s shaking the dollar’s foundation. He’s not just rattling markets; he’s pushing Russia, India, and China closer together. I called this in my recent book, Contours of the Greater Game, where I stuck my neck out and sketched an Asian Alliance. Back then, 1.5 years ago, I was researching and writing the first draft under Biden’s shadow, when US-India ties were frosty. My book wasn’t even printed when Trump won in November 2024, and analysts thought he’d cozy up to Modi and peel Putin away from Xi.
But here’s the twist: Trump’s policies are doing the opposite, welding RIC into a tighter bloc. My proposed Asian Alliance is suddenly looking like it could make waves in Eurasia.
De-Dollarization and RIC
Russia, India, and China aren’t just buying gold, they are rethinking the dollar’s chokehold. Russia has been burned by sanctions, so it is no shock they are stacking gold like it is going out of style. China’s central bank cut dollar purchases and boosted gold reserves by 12.8 tons in Q1 2025. India, meanwhile, pulled 200 tonnes of gold back from London vaults in 2024, a move not seen since the 1990s. This isn’t just logistics; it is a statement. The Reserve Bank of India now holds 880 tonnes, about 12% of its reserves, and it is not slowing down.
These moves hint towards de-dollarization, a slow-burn strategy to chip away at the dollar’s 46% share of global reserves. Gold’s now 20% of central bank reserves, overtaking the Euro’s 16%. The RIC trio’s collaboration shows they are serious about carving out a dollar-free zone. India’s growing confidence, especially, is striking. I have heard whispers in pockets of policy circles, thoughts like “Do we even need the US?” It is a bold question, fuelled by Trump’s erratic policies and India’s own economic rise. If RIC keeps aligning, they could reshape Eurasian trade, with gold as their anchor.
The Risks to Uncle Sam
Here is where it gets dicey for the US. De-dollarization isn’t just a buzzword; it is a slow-bleeding wound. If the world needs fewer dollars, they will flood back to the US, spiking inflation. In a nightmare scenario, a dollar collapse could trigger hyperinflation. The US relies on global dollar demand to fund its deficits, without it, the house of cards wobbles. Crescat Capital’s Tavi Costa calls this a “significant global rebalancing,” and I agree. The US economy’s staring at a recession risk, with Goldman Sachs pegging gold at $4,500 per ounce by 2025 if things go south.
However, personally, I would not want to write the dollar’s obituary. Not yet. It is still the king, with 46% of reserves. The RIC alliance faces hurdles, China’s economic slowdown, India’s balancing act with the West, and Russia’s geopolitical baggage. Yet, their gold binge signals intent. They’re not just diversifying; they’re preparing for a world where the dollar isn’t the only game in town.
The “Greater Game” Unfolds
In Contours of the Greater Game, I argued for an Asian Alliance, and I’ll admit, Trump’s win had me second-guessing. His bromance with Modi and outreach to Putin seemed poised to fracture the BRICS. But his tariffs and dollar-weakening moves have done what Biden’s sanctions couldn’t: pushed RIC to collaborate. My book’s thesis isn’t shaky anymore, it is looking prophetic. This alliance could redefine Eurasia, with gold as its backbone and a gradual de-dollarization as its strategy. The US, meanwhile, needs to wake up.
Roosevelt hoarded gold to save the dollar; today’s central banks are hoarding it to sideline it. History has got a funny way of rhyming.
