The United States, that swaggering Godzilla (as John Mearsheimer says), is throwing its weight around like a barroom brawler these days. Just about a while ago, it blasted some fishing boats in the waters of Venezuela and started strong-arming Japan with missile deployments.
Frankly, this is looking less like diplomacy and more like Mearsheimer’s offensive realism on steroids: a great power trying to hoard security like wolves guarding a kill. Is Uncle Sam so spooked that bombing and/or detaining Venezuelan fishermen has suddenly become a necessity?
The Predator’s Playbook
Offensive Realism, among other things, says that states maximize power because weakness invites annihilation. The U.S., once the unchallenged alpha, now faces a multipolar jungle. China, Russia, India, and even Iran to some extents is flexing. There is a swelling Chinese navy, there are Russian shadow games in Ukraine, and there is India asserting on the dos and don’ts of international transaction. Add to that the spectre of Venezuela, Iran cozying up to one or more of these emergent powers. “Survival demands offence”, nods Offensive Realism.
And so, Trump vaporizes 11 “narco-terrorists” (probably fishermen, as per Maduro) on September 2, and torches three more on a cartel-linked boat by September 15. All in international waters. The USS Jason Dunham’s September 13 tuna boat raid remains quite a scene with18 armed Yanks swarming for eight hours. Japan gets no reprieve either.
During Resolute Dragon 2025, the U.S. parades Typhon missiles (SM-6 and Tomahawk slingers)—across Okinawa. Why? Is this because this base is just about 1600 kms from Beijing? Because China has been gobbling sea lanes, and diversifying its foreign reserves? Because Taiwan is a flashpoint? Or because a US complacency has let the Indo-Pacific slip? Maybe all of the above? Power abhors a vacuum; and Uncle Sam has probably decided that the best way to wake up is to fill it with steel.
Japan’s Tightrope
Japan’s options do not look too good at the moment. Ditching the U.S. alliance would be suicidal. China’s PLA Navy, with over 400 ships, laps Japan’s 150-vessel fleet like a cat laps cream. Beijing’s DF-21D “carrier killers” and hypersonics could turn Japan’s Izumo into more cat-food before it even leaves port. Pivoting to China, notwithstanding the long, sordid history, could be a choke chain any way.
Though Japan’s $4T economy leans a lot on Chinese trade (17% exports and 22% imports), a full bow to Xi could open a can of worms especially with respect to the old and established US roots inside the island cluster. Whispers of “autonomous defence” offer hope: Article 9 tweaks since 2023 greenlight counterstrike capabilities and a defence budget hike to 2% of GDP ($86 billion) by 2027.
Cooking hypersonic missiles, hedging with India’s 140-ship navy, and ASEAN’s anti-China duo (Singapore and Vietnam) weaves a kind of a loose coalition. It is definitely not a fortress; it is more like a tripwire. Fact is, Japan’s nearly 80 years dependence on Uncle Sam means only one thing: Japan cannot do without the US. Not as of now.
Defiant Venezuela
Interestingly, Venezuela has got fewer cards but is playing them with venom. Maduro mustered four million militia and buzzed U.S. destroyers with F-16s on September 4 and 5, rattling the Pentagon’s cage. To counter U.S. piracy, Caracas can lean on BRICS allies: ship oil to Russia for S-400 systems, deploy Iranian drones to patrol coasts, and deepen ties with China for economic lifelines.
That aside, there are the legal guerrilla tactics, like suing the U.S. at The Hague for boat attacks. This could spark a global backlash. Well, with Washington already painting itself as a rogue, there is nothing new out there. But Venezuela’s alignment with the emergent multipolar order might provide a boost to a lot of other states that have been similarly affected by the US.
Economically, hoarding gold and crypto-dodging sanctions, and militarily, fortifying coastal defences with Russian tech has kept Maduro afloat. He would be expected to try and project this botched raid to turn world opinion. And yet, without nukes or a serious navy, Venezuela remans a fly to America’s sledgehammer. Not to forget the fact that this is Western Hemisphere that we are talking about: America’s influence zone.
Venezuela Cornered: Power’s a Jealous God
In this realist slaughterhouse, the U.S. rampages because it must. Power is a jealous god. Japan and Venezuela are presently cornered. And they must sharpen claws in their own unique ways as they try to save themselves from bleeding out. Boats would burn, missiles would gleam, and the Greater Game would grind on.
