Donald Trump has claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him India will end its purchase of Russian oil, a statement that, if true, would mark a major diplomatic turn. But on the ground, India’s energy behaviour tells a different story.
Speaking at a public event, Trump suggested that Modi had agreed to “phase out” Russian crude, framing it as part of a broader U.S. effort to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine war. “It’s a process, but that process will be over with soon,” he said.
So far, New Delhi has offered no confirmation of this claim. The Indian government has neither acknowledged nor denied any such assurance.
India’s Oil Strategy: Economics Over Allegiance
India remains one of the world’s largest importers of Russian oil. Since 2022, Moscow has supplied discounted crude, which India refines and uses to stabilise domestic fuel prices. Despite Western criticism, policymakers in New Delhi consistently argue that energy decisions are dictated by affordability, not ideology.
Cutting off Russia would mean higher costs, supply disruptions, and inflation, risks any government would be unwilling to take without a reliable alternative.
U.S. Pressure and Tariff Politics
Trump’s statement arrives against the backdrop of renewed trade friction. Earlier this year, he imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports, later raised to 50%, citing India’s continued oil purchases from Russia. This framing positions India as a reluctant partner in the Western campaign against Moscow.
American officials have gone further, accusing India of acting as a “global clearinghouse” by refining Russian oil and reselling it on global markets.
No Sign of Policy Shift from New Delhi
For all the rhetoric, recent import data shows India’s Russian oil intake remains steady. If a policy change is underway, it has not yet reached the docks or disrupted shipping routes.
Four factors suggest continuity, not capitulation:
- Absence of Official Statement – New Delhi’s silence signals caution.
- Stable Import Trends – No visible reduction in crude flow from Russia.
- Energy Security Priorities – Domestic pricing still trumps diplomatic gestures.
- Strategic Autonomy Doctrine – India will not publicly align under pressure.
Bigger Question: Will India Be Drawn Into U.S.– Russia Rivalry?
Trump has hinted he wants China to follow a similar path, suggesting this is less about India alone and more about building a geopolitical coalition. But India has long avoided being boxed into Western narratives, especially when national energy needs are involved.
Until Modi or the MEA issues a direct clarification, Trump’s claim remains campaign rhetoric, not geopolitical reality.
