Bihar’s legislative assembly election is in the offing. Psephologists are sweating; journalists are scratching their heads, and political experts are busy decoding social media chatter to sound authoritative. This election is turning out to be one of the most intriguing Bihar has witnessed in decades.
From 2020 Stability to 2025 Chaos
Back in 2020, the terrain felt far more stable. The two major alliances had clearly drawn loyalties, party boundaries were firm, and leaders held fixed priorities. Fast forward to 2025, and confusion reigns. As of writing, Jitan Ram Manjhi has declared he will field candidates in seats allotted to LJP (Ram Vilas), while JD(U) has shown little warmth toward Chirag Paswan, putting up its own candidates in five seats he had eyed. Upendra Kushwaha, long restless within the NDA, was reportedly pacified after being promised an MLC berth. Meanwhile, a senior leader from the Mahagathbandhan took to X, invoking Kabir’s dohas to express dissent in poetic form.
Nitish Kumar: Between Legacy and Fatigue
Nitish Kumar, who has recently appeared politically and physically fatigued, seems to have rediscovered traces of his old assertiveness. The Chief Minister was reportedly furious with party leaders for failing to negotiate a fruitful deal with the BJP.
Equal Alliance, Unequal Ambitions
The BJP–JD(U) alliance now contests on equal footing, 101 seats each, a far cry from earlier elections when JD(U) dictated terms. The once-unquestioned “elder brother” image attached to Nitish Kumar no longer sits well within BJP circles, where core supporters are eager for a Chief Minister of their own. While the BJP has adopted a pragmatic, data-driven approach to candidate selection, JD(U) still leans heavily on Nitish’s administrative legacy.
Welfare Blitz: Nitish’s Counter to Anti-Incumbency
Yet time has not spared him. At 74, Bihar’s longest-serving Chief Minister faces the weight of anti-incumbency and fatigue. To counter this, his government has unleashed a barrage of pre-election welfare measures, from 125 units of free electricity per household to enhanced pensions for the elderly, widows, and the differently abled, alongside a ₹1,000 monthly allowance for unemployed graduates.
A significant women-centric push has emerged through the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, offering up to ₹2 lakh in support for female entrepreneurs. These populist measures, combined with industrial incentives such as tax reliefs and land subsidies, form the backbone of Nitish’s fight to preserve his status quo.
Tejashwi and the Politics of Aspiration
On the other side, Tejashwi Yadav is betting on aspiration. His “one job per family” promise has become the RJD’s rallying cry. He has vowed to legislate it within 20 days of taking office and implement it fully within 20 months. Coupled with the revival of his “10 lakh jobs” pledge, Tejashwi is positioning himself as the voice of a restless generation that feels shortchanged by both JD(U) and BJP.
Jan Suraaj: Reform or Spoiler?
Amid this traditional tug-of-war, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party has injected a new flavour into Bihar’s politics. Officially launched in late 2024 after months of padyatras, Jan Suraaj claims to stand for clean, post-caste politics, an almost utopian ambition in Bihar’s electoral grammar. Kishor, a strategist-turned-politician, has built a formidable digital presence appealing to the urban middle class and first-time voters. But his real test lies in converting digital sentiment into booth-level votes. For now, analysts see Jan Suraaj less as a kingmaker and more as a spoiler, slicing fragments from both major alliances.
Bihar’s Long History of Reformers
While Kishor’s supporters hail him as a reformist on a mission, one must recall what journalist Shankarshan Thakur once wrote: “Bihar was never at a loss for those who set out to build it.” Bihar has never lacked reformist figures, Srikrishna Sinha, Anugrah Narayan Sinha, Jayaprakash Narayan, Karpoori Thakur, Ram Lakhan Yadav, Jagannath Mishra, all continue to echo in its political memory. To cast Kishor as the sole visionary is, at best, premature.
The Voter Roll Flashpoint: Democracy on Trial
In the humid heat of July, as Bihar awaited monsoon showers, the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls set the political landscape aflame. What was meant to be a routine pre-election exercise, to update voter lists, remove duplicates, and verify new entries, spiralled into controversy. Reports suggested nearly 65 lakh names were flagged for deletion as “duplicates” or “untraceable,” prompting opposition outrage over alleged disenfranchisement of marginalized and migrant voters. The matter reached the Supreme Court, which directed the EC to justify the removal of 3.66 lakh names. What began as an administrative process became the first psychological battleground of Election 2025. Rahul Gandhi arrived in Bihar and launched the Voter Adhikar Yatra, the impact of which is visible in the Congress’s hardened bargaining with the RJD.
The Final Contest: Legacy vs Aspiration
This election is a test of Nitish Kumar’s Sushasan legacy, the BJP’s claim to leadership, the RJD’s attempt to exorcise memories of Jungle Raj, the Congress’s revival, and Jan Suraaj’s experiment with post-caste politics. The arithmetic is messy, the chemistry volatile. On November 14, Bihar will choose.
Until then, hold your breath, Absolute Cinema is about to play.
Writer – Avikal Narayan Shukla
Avikal Narayan Shukla, an IIMC alumnus, is a Bihar-based journalist and columnist who writes on politics, education, environment, and sports.
