Bihar 2025 election results have made the writing on wall clear. Nitish Kumar’s sway among EBC voters and women remains intact. Voters continue to see the BJP–JD(U) alliance as a match made in heaven. Once Lalu Prasad Yadav’s, and now his scion’s, RJD has still not dispelled the spectre of Jungle Raj from public memory. The INC found no takers for its “vote chori” cry, and Prashant Kishor needs to be in Bihar for the next five years to translate his digital presence into actual votes.
As I write this piece, the NDA is leading in 202 seats, while the MGB (Mahagathbandhan) comprising RJD, INC, CPI(ML), and VIP, has managed leads on a meagre 35 seats. The supposedly X-factor strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj has put up a dismal performance, trailing even behind NOTA in several constituencies. JD(U) has emerged as the biggest gainer, looking to add at least 40 seats to its 2020 tally, while LJP(R), after an astounding strike rate in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, has made a gigantic leap by taking convincing leads on 19 seats.
Nitish Gets EBC And Women Aligned
Seventy-four-year-old Nitish Kumar is all set to take Bihar’s CM oath once again. Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar. both were products of the Jay Prakash Narayan-led student movement. While the former battles ailements, criminal charges, and family issues, the latter seems to keep rising like a phoenix.
Just months ago, a haggard, aged, and outdated Nitish was spoken of as a burden even for his allies. Within BJP’s inner circle, Nitish Kumar was beginning to be seen as no longer inevitable. BJP quietly explored the possibility of a CM of its own.
Lo and behold, Nitish has flipped the script entirely. His JD(U) has emerged as the biggest gainer in the assembly election, leading on 83 seats. JD(U) had won only 43 seats in the 2020 Bihar assembly elections. EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes), accounting for 36 percent of Bihar’s population, are supposedly Nitish’s core voters, and if JD(U) is winning this many seats, one thing is unmistakable: Nitish still holds decisive sway among EBCs.
Mukhyamantri Cycle Yojna, liquor ban, and now ₹10,000 to women in Bihar who wanted to start a business of their own. Nitish Kumar commands a women-centric vote bank like no other leader in Bihar. The numbers speak louder than any political slogan. More than 2.5 crore women cast their ballots in the 2025 assembly elections in Bihar outperforming male voters by a wide margin, a significant shift in the electoral landscape. Women’s turnout reached approximately 71.6 percent, while men voted at around 62.8%, meaning women outvoted men by nearly 9–10 percentage points, and in some districts by over 10. For his progressive outlook and women-centric schemes, the incumbent Chief Minister finds massive ballot support among women voters.
BJP’s macro management, The ghost of Jungle Raj
BJP-led NDA kept reminding people of the Jungle Raj. Narendra Modi even quoted lyrics from a viral RJD supporters’ song, ‘Marab sixes ke chhah goli chhaati mein’ (Will shoot six bullets of a sixer (revolver) in the chest). BJP ensured that voters were reminded of the dystopia that is generally associated with 1990’s RJD ruled Bihar.
BJP was also meticulous in its seat-sharing strategy. It made JD(U) give up its winning Tararpur constituency and fielded Bihar Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary from there. A whole host of top politicians, including incumbent CMs and popular MPs, were sent to campaign for NDA candidates. Dissenters were taken into confidence, and rebels were carefully appeased.
One such example is the Bhagalpur constituency seat.
Bhagalpur has been with Congress for 11 years, with Ajeet Sharma winning the seat. BJP kept losing it because its own members would break away and contest as independents. This time too, at least two candidates turned rebel, but Home Minister Amit Shah is said to have personally spoken to them, leading to both withdrawing their candidature. This intervention led to a comfortable BJP victory in Bhagalpur. BJP repeated similar strategies in several other seats.
While the NDA also stood united, resolving its differences behind closed doors, the MGB’s disagreements were out in the open. Stressing this contrast, Indian Express journalist Himanshu Harsh said—”The NDA’s welfare schemes, combined with the unity they projected, worked strongly in their favour. In the previous election, Chirag Paswan’s split from NDA and positioning his candidates against Nitish Kumar’s party hurt the alliance’s overall prospects. This time, although there was some friction within the NDA, they resolved it behind the scenes and prevented it from becoming a public issue. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan appeared visibly divided, their indecision on seat-sharing arrangements, candidate selections, not extensively campaigning for each other, along with cases of friendly contests, gave voters an impression of instability , which ultimately hampered their prospects.”
MGB tussles among themselves; Congress falls wayward
MGB’s infighting was out in the open. Even core voters aligned with Lalu’s idea of social justice and Congress’s centrist–secular ideology could see that their leaders failed to iron out their differences. The alliance even had friendly fights on 12 seats.
RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, failed to put forth a manifesto that could appeal to both the sense and sensibility of the voter. His promise of ₹2,500 per month for five years to every woman in Bihar was overshadowed by Nitish Kumar’s ₹10,000 assistance to 1.2 crore women beneficiaries under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana.
What truly appealed to women voters was the scheme’s next instalment of ₹2 lakh, promised to those who invested the initial assistance in a business or livelihood activity. If their enterprise showed progress, an additional ₹2 lakh would be provided after six months based on assessment and performance.
In the public eye, whatever Tejashwi promised, the NDA offered a stronger and more sensible alternative.
Traditionally banking on the MY (Muslim-Yadav) vote bank, the RJD-led MGB may have hoped to gain EBC support by promising VIP’s Mukesh Sahani a Deputy Chief Minister’s post. However, Sahani’s VIP sits at zero in the tally now. For Bihar’s politically conscious voters, Sahani’s personal ambitions appeared far more evident than any meaningful contribution to EBCs or the broader backward-caste community.
Meanwhile, the RJD supremo Lalu Yadav’s family grappled with turmoil. Lalu Yadav’s elder son, Tej Pratap Yadav, was ousted from the party after a high-voltage family drama. In retaliation, he floated his own outfit, the Janshakti Janta Dal that now stares at a blank in the results. The party did manage to cut some MGB votes in a few seats.
Rahul Gandhi’s “vote chori” campaign proved to be a damp squib. Bihar’s former Congress in-charge Krishna Allavaru was publicly criticised by senior leaders like Tariq Anwar and Anand Madhav over ticket distribution. Allavaru found himself at the centre of a storm after he, along with state Congress president Rajesh Ram and former leader Shakeel Ahmad Khan, faced protests at Patna airport. Party workers clashed over allegations that the Vikram Assembly seat was sold for ₹5 crore.
Videos of the scuffle showing party workers jostling as Allavaru, Shakeel Ahmad, and Rajesh Ram hurried toward their vehicles were deeply embarrassing for the Congress high command.
Days after the incident, Allavaru was removed as Bihar in-charge and replaced by Manish Sharma. Shakeel Ahmad also resigned from the party on Tuesday, citing differences with the leadership.
Chirag Paswan’s Rise
When Union Minister Chirag Paswan managed to get 29 constituencies for his Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas), experts opined that this was punching above the weight. But now the trend shows that Chirag Paswan is leading in 19 of them. This firmly establishes Chirag Paswan as a youth CM contender in a post-Nitish Bihar, a claim he himself would not shy away from making, given a chance.
Jan Suraj gets a reality check
Strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor officially launched his Jan Suraaj party a year back; before that, he was on his padyatra across Bihar since 2022. PK made tall claims in the months leading to the poll. With a large digital presence, a battery of social media influencers, creators, and non-resident Biharis rooting for him, Jan Suraaj still failed to open an account in the election.
Candidates ranging from IPS officers, doctors, celebrated mathematicians, and lawyers were fielded by Jan Suraj, but they couldn’t impress the voters.
This cocktail of political inexperience, digital overdependence, lack of cadre, and weak on-ground campaigning likely fuelled Jan Suraaj’s abysmal performance.
Bihar Has Given Its verdict
Bihar has delivered its verdict. Those who voted for the NDA say they voted both against Jungle Raj and for development. The coalition now holds a mandate far beyond the simple 122-seat majority. For a state that has too often topped poverty indices, the need for development is urgent. Whatever the NDA has done so far may be enough to win an election, but it is nowhere near enough to stop young, desperate Biharis from boarding general compartments and heading to other states for poorly paid jobs. Bihar needs far more development, lest development itself becomes nothing more than a political rhetoric.
