India has hit at least 4 air forces bases in Pakistan in the wee hours of the intervening night between Friday and Saturday. The strikes involve attacks across multiple major cities. Pakistan mounted a retaliation on Saturday morning but they have not registered any successes so far that they can boast about. While it is far too early to comment on the essential takeaways from the historic night, we can at least draw a few conclusions that are likely to hold true regardless of what happens henceforth.
1. India has established a new threshold for Pakistan state-sponsored terrorism
India has defied conventional wisdom at every step in its response to the Pahalgam Terror Attack. Pakistan has always taken advantage of the fact that India behaves as a rational actor that wishes to avoid confrontation with a country that has nuclear weapons. It has used this ruse to wage sub-conventional warfare against India by sponsoring terrorism as state-policy.
Pakistan relied on the knowledge that the international community would intervene to deescalate tensions with India should the Indian Government decide to respond militarily to terrorist attacks. It is now apparent that they vastly overestimated the will of the international community to continuously save their skin.
India has established a new threshold in dealing with state-sponsored terrorism. Here on, every act of terrorism will be met with a Military Response from the Indian Side. The Indian Government has gone a step further and demonstrated a willingness to climb up the Escalation Ladder unfazed by Pakistan’s nuclear threat. The cost of sub-conventional warfare just went a lot higher for Pakistan.
2. The Geopolitics of Indian Subcontinent has changed forever
Geopolitical Analysts have perpetuated the myth that Pakistan holds parity with India in limited conflict. They have been repeating the same ‘gyan’ so often that they did not realise the fallacy of it until the ground was swept beneath their feet. By striking Pakistani air force bases at will and successfully repelling all Pakistani retaliation, India has demonstrated that it has overwhelming superiority even in a limited conflict.
This completely changes the Geopolitics of the Indian Subcontinent. Pakistan can no longer afford to pursue its policy of state-sponsored terrorism. It can no longer afford to irk India for its own domestic political concerns. It can no longer afford to annoy India to satisfy the delusions of grandeur of its army officers. More importantly, it must now reckon with India’s overwhelming superiority in every sphere of relevance.
The morale of the Pakistani Civilians is likely to suffer a significant blow as well. Furthermore, the Pakistani Armed Forces could very well lose their grip on the country’s domestic politics. Their entire legitimacy before the ‘Avaam’ is based on their supposed competence in resisting India. Despite losing every military conflict with India comprehensively, they have somehow succeeded in convincing their population that they actually won every war. That lie cannot be perpetuated any longer. The ‘Avaam’ is unlikely to react very kindly to the very public humiliation that the Indian Armed Forced have meted out to them.
Simultaneously, the Baloch Freedom Fighters will feel emboldened by what they have seen so far. There’s no better time to hit your enemy than when he is down and out and humiliated. This could very well turn into an existential crisis for Pakistan. Humiliation at the hands of the Indian Government has very dark consequences in store for the Pakistani National Security Establishment. And we could begin witnessing at least some of them in the near future.
3. Make-in-India in Defence Industry has finally come of age
The current conflict with Pakistan has been a revelation in terms of the advancement India’s indigenous defence production industry has made. While the Russian S-400 SAM system has hogged all the limelight, it is the indigenously developed Akash that has really performed over and beyond every expectation in repelling the Pakistani drone attacks. Similarly, the Barak-8 MR-SAM, developed jointly with Israel, has been crucial in augmenting Indian defences.
Another aspect in which the Indian side has really exceeded expectations is the drones it has used in the ongoing conflict. Kamikaze drones manufactured in Bengaluru made their operational debut during Operation Sindoor. The SkyStrikers were used to executed to precision strikes during the initial missile strikes across nine terrorism infrastructure sites in Pakistan. While it cannot be confirmed at the moment, it is very likely that they were used to strike Pakistani air force bases as well.
Similarly, the Bofors L70 40mm gun has been upgraded with radar, electro-optical sensors, and auto-tracking systems. The upgradation executed by BEL has transformed it into a state-of-the-art defence system, making it an extremely efficient unit to combat drone attacks.
India has acquired a credible reputation over the years with the indigenously manufactured cruise and ballistic missiles in its arsenal. It is likely that they were crucial towards executing the strikes across the air force bases in Pakistani territory. All in all, the Indian Defence Manufacturing Industry has augmented its reputation by a great degree in the past few days.
Conclusion
There will be room for more analysis later but for now, Indians can afford to celebrate the Indian Night of Triumph with a tasteful sip of tea.
