In the vast, arid expanses of Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest yet least developed province, lies a geopolitical time bomb. Sandwiched between Iran, Afghanistan, and the Arabian Sea, Balochistan is not just a cartographic footnote in South Asia’s periphery. It is the new epicenter of an unfolding great-power contest, where China’s ambitions, Pakistan’s insecurities, and India’s strategic calculus are colliding like tectonic plates.
The Chinese Stake: Balochistan CPEC and the Maritime Pivot
China has poured billions into Balochistan through its flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), specifically via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). At the heart of this corridor is the Gwadar Port, a deep-sea marvel that offers China direct access to the Arabian Sea and, by extension, the Persian Gulf. This is not just about trade or infrastructure; it is about reshaping regional influence.
Gwadar is poised to become Beijing’s maritime pearl in the Indian Ocean, an alternative to the chokepoint-laden Malacca Strait, which has long constrained China’s energy security. With Chinese naval presence quietly increasing under the guise of civilian projects, Balochistan becomes a linchpin in Beijing’s “String of Pearls” strategy, a network of ports and bases aimed at counterbalancing U.S. and Indian naval power.
But while China builds roads, ports, and pipelines, it also entrenches itself into the region’s security matrix. Reports of Chinese private security contractors operating in Balochistan to protect CPEC assets point to a creeping militarization, one that blurs the line between economic outreach and strategic occupation.
India’s Strategic Dilemma and the Baloch Opportunity
For India, the Chinese deep-state entrenchment in Balochistan is a two-front dilemma: it not only bolsters Pakistan’s ailing economy and military posture but also gives China an outpost alarmingly close to India’s western shores. As Chinese radar systems and logistics hubs proliferate in Gwadar and beyond, India’s security calculus demands a bold response.
Herein lies the realpolitik opportunity for New Delhi—supporting the indigenous resistance to the CPEC model: the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and other local factions that see Chinese presence as neo-colonialism dressed in development. While official policy maintains India’s commitment to regional sovereignty, voices in Baloch circles often cite a “foreign hand” aiding in their visibility and global outreach. The subtle presence of intelligence footprints—deliberate or otherwise—cannot be dismissed entirely.
Over the past decade, India’s strategic community has matured in understanding that asymmetric responses are often more effective than conventional ones. By investing in political narratives, humanitarian visibility, and selective covert engagements, India can increase the strategic cost of China’s presence in Balochistan. Though deniable, such influence campaigns mirror tactics long used by global powers—from Langley to Lubyanka.
Disarming the China-Pakistan Nexus: A Long Game
Disarming Pakistan and China in Balochistan doesn’t require missiles; it requires patience, partnerships, and proxies. India should focus on a tri-pronged approach:
- Narrative Dominance: Amplify the voices of Baloch dissent in international forums. Frame Chinese investments as exploitative, resource-draining ventures that disenfranchise locals. The global discourse on debt-trap diplomacy is ripe for this.
- Strategic Disruption: Quietly assist Baloch factions, not with weapons, but with intelligence, technology, and diplomacy. Encourage fragmentation within Pakistan’s narrative of a unified state, especially in regions where identity-based resistance thrives.
- Regional Counterbalances: Collaborate with Iran and the Gulf states to develop alternate ports and logistics chains. Chabahar, for instance, can be reinvigorated as a direct competitor to Gwadar. India can also deepen strategic dialogues with the West on China’s creeping influence in the Indian Ocean.
The Role of Intelligence: Quiet but Critical
India’s Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) has long understood that influence is often best exercised in silence. While the Pakistani establishment frequently accuses India of fueling Baloch unrest, definitive proof remains elusive—and that’s precisely the point. Strategic ambiguity, when married to tactical precision, is one of New Delhi’s most potent instruments in the shadow war over Balochistan.
Whether it’s mapping Chinese logistics patterns, monitoring PLA security deployments, or amplifying indigenous resistance through covert means, India’s strategic community must remain two steps ahead. The goal is not direct confrontation but attritional contestation—making the cost of Chinese overreach higher than the benefit.
While mainstream Indian policy maintains a principled stand on non-interference in Pakistan’s internal affairs, India’s external intelligence agency, R&AW, has long operated within a domain where deniability and deterrence walk hand in hand. In the context of Balochistan, the agency’s activities, though never officially acknowledged, have increasingly become a strategic lever in countering the China-Pakistan nexus.
Pakistan has repeatedly accused India of meddling in Balochistan, most notably after the 2016 capture of Kulbhushan Jadhav, a former Indian Navy officer whom Islamabad claims was working for R&AW. While New Delhi categorically denies these charges, the case revealed one undeniable truth: Balochistan has become a priority in South Asia’s shadow war.
R&AW’s alleged presence in Balochistan is not primarily kinetic; it is informational, psychological, and subversive. Rather than arming rebels or directing operations—methods too risky and traceable—the agency is believed to facilitate the amplification of Baloch grievances, provide strategic intelligence to regional partners, and exploit internal fissures within the Pakistani establishment.
Let’s unpack this further:
1. Intelligence Mapping and Surveillance
R&AW, in collaboration with India’s technical intelligence capabilities (such as NTRO), is reportedly focused on monitoring Chinese military logistics, identifying PLA security deployments, and tracking ISI counter-insurgency operations in Balochistan. This intelligence is not only used for situational awareness but also to inform both tactical responses and diplomatic messaging.
2. Influence Operations
Through indirect channels, the agency is believed to support the media visibility of Baloch voices, from diaspora activism in Europe to subtle digital campaigns exposing human rights violations. These influence operations aim to build international legitimacy for the Baloch cause and reframe Chinese presence as exploitative rather than developmental.
In an age where wars are won in information spaces before battlefields, R&AW’s asymmetric toolkit plays a vital role in reshaping global perception around Balochistan.
3. Creating Strategic Distractions for Pakistan
By sustaining a level of insurgency pressure in Balochistan, without overt escalation, R&AW may also be serving a secondary strategic goal: forcing Pakistan to remain internally preoccupied, particularly its overstretched military-intelligence complex. This hampers Islamabad’s ability to act freely on other fronts, including Kashmir, Afghanistan, and its support for proxy elements.
As a result, India is shaping the regional equilibrium not by invasion or occupation, but by calibrated disruption.
4. Network Penetration
Though speculative, it is likely that India’s external intelligence network has penetrated certain financial and political circuits within Balochistan, not for regime change, but for influence modulation. By maintaining assets or informants close to key players (tribal leaders, political exiles, diaspora activists), India ensures early warning and strategic leverage.
Strategic Significance of R&AW’s Engagement
The real value of R&AW’s role lies in its ability to operate in the grey zone, the space between diplomacy and warfare. Unlike conventional military action, which invites retaliation and global scrutiny, intelligence-led operations allow for plausible deniability, strategic ambiguity, and enduring disruption.
Balochistan, due to its ethnic fault lines and history of resistance, offers fertile ground for such an approach. The aim is not full-scale destabilization, but incremental exhaustion of adversaries’ ambitions, particularly China’s expansive footprint and Pakistan’s unyielding grip.
By continuing to engage indirectly, but decisively, R&AW is quietly turning Balochistan into a strategic quagmire for India’s adversaries—a place where economic dreams can sour into insurgent nightmares, and where strategic overreach becomes a liability.
Balochistan: The Battle Beneath the Surface
Balochistan may not dominate global headlines, but beneath its rugged terrain lies a geopolitical contest that could redefine the balance of power in South Asia. As China embeds itself deeper into Pakistan’s most volatile province through CPEC, and as Pakistan tightens its security grip, the region has become a crucible where infrastructure meets insurgency, and development masks dominance.
For India, the challenge is not to match Beijing in brick and mortar but to exploit the very contradictions that come with imposed partnerships and suppressed identities. Balochistan offers New Delhi a rare strategic lever, one that operates in the grey zones of influence, narrative warfare, and deniable action.
This is not a theatre for tanks and troops, but for intelligence, information, and indirect disruption. By amplifying local grievances, supporting regional alternatives like Chabahar, and leveraging covert tools through agencies like R&AW, India can gradually raise the strategic cost of Chinese overreach without crossing the red lines of open conflict.
In this long game, patience is a weapon. Precision is power. And ambiguity is an advantage.
Balochistan will not be “won” in the traditional sense, but it can be shaped. And if shaped wisely, it can become the very place where China’s ambitions and Pakistan’s illusions of control begin to unravel, one quiet disruption at a time.
This was originally published in Impaakt, and is being republished with the authors permission.
Written By – Omkar Nikam
Note: Omkar Nikam is the Founder of Access Hub, a global B2B online marketplace for Space, Defense, Maritime, Aerospace, Media Tech, and Climate Tech sectors based in Strasbourg, France.
