In the United States, they have a saying: “It’s the Economy, Stupid!” The phrase has its origins in Bill Clinton’s successful presidential campaign in 1992. It captures the core mindset of the American Voter, which suggests that their primary concern in any presidential is the state of the economy, above all else.
The hypothesis explains every election in recent memory, starting from 1992. Barack Obama’s historic victory in 2008 was preceded by the world financial crisis. Trump’s 2016 campaign was almost entirely based on economic circumstances. Joe Biden in 2020 won on the backdrop of the Covid-19 related economic crisis. Trump in 2024 again won on the backdrop of a flailing economy under Biden.
Although the Economy may not explain every presidential election results, it does explain them for the most part. It is here that the mindset of the American Voter diverges greatly from that of voters around the world. In other countries, some elections may be decided on the state of the economy. But it cannot explain every election result so succinctly.
The Indian Voter rarely votes on the basis of the Economy
The Indian Voter takes many things into account when he casts his vote. The economy, more often than not, is not accorded the highest degree of priority. It is a concern, certainly, but not the only or the highest concern.
Caste, religion, the law and order situation, national security, welfare schemes, these are some of the things on his mind when he votes in a Lok Sabha Election. Mostly, caste triumphs every other concern. It is no surprise that political parties lay so much emphasis on caste arithmetic.
Indeed, there has only been one occasion where the economy has been the deciding factor in Lok Sabha Elections. Before going into that, let us look at some of the driving factors in elections in recent memory.
In 1991, The Indian National Congress rode a wave of sympathy votes stimulated by Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination to storm back to power. By 1996, INC fell victim to anti-incumbency that had been building against it for years and years.
The anti-incumbency factor continued to dominate Indian polity for the next two Lok Sabha Elections in quick succession. The NDA won the elections definitively in 1999 and Atal Bihari Vajpayee became the first non-Congress Prime Minister to complete a 5-year term.
In 2009, Manmohan Singh won the elections for the INC with a far bigger mandate than in 2004. A lot of factors contributed to the 2009 win, including the economy, but economy alone was not the deciding factor then.
Factionalism within the BJP, the lack of an alternative to Vajpayee, welfare schemes such as NREGA and the caste arithmetic are some of the reasons that drove the INC towards a major victory.
The Narendra Modi Phenomenon
There were many factors that propelled Narendra Modi to the highest corridors of power, the economy was not the primary one among them. The national morale was at an all time low after 10 years of Manmohan Singh’s prime ministerial tenure. UPA-II suffered from rampant corruption, terrorist attacks, harebrained minority appeasement and widespread protest movements.
Even in 2011, it was widely acknowledged that the UPA Government was a dead-man walking. There was simply no-way that the United Progress Alliance will return to power in 2014. It was under these circumstances that Narendra Modi burst onto the national scene.
Modi presented a version of muscular nationalism in response to UPA’s lukewarm stance towards national security. He presented a vision of India as a Hindu Civilisational State as an alternative to INC’s Nehruvian Secularism. Economy and Inflation played a role, certainly, but the driving force behind Modi’s rising popularity was his image of an unapologetic Hindu Nationalist leader.
By 2014, the aspiring Indian youth also became hostile towards dynastic politics. Rahul Gandhi was a political novice, floundering from one blunder to the next, and the Indian Youth knew it. It did not go down well with Indians that Rahul Gandhi was clearly the UPA’s Prime Ministerial candidate, albeit undeclared. Narendra Modi rode all these emotions to an unprecedented victory in 2014.
In 2019, Narendra Modi again won an unprecedented victory relying on his stellar record as Prime Minister. His first term in power was everything that Manmohan Singh’s tenure was not. The Surgical Strikes and the Balakot Airstrike were the defining successes of his first term.
Narendra Modi combined muscular nationalism with the successful implementation of welfare schemes to bid for a second term in power. The Indian Electorate duly obliged by handing him an even greater victory.
The Economy Elections of 2004
The BJP’s primary campaign message in 2004 was its performance with regards to the Economy. Its message was “India Shining”, referring to the general optimism of the electorate regarding the Indian Economy. That did not work out too well for the BJP.
The INC defied all expectations to emerge as the single largest party in the elections. After the elections were done, even BJP leaders admitted that they it was the wrong platform to campaign on. Critics pointed out that while macroeconomic factors looked great, the growth had not benefited all sections of society equitably.
Long story short, the consensus was that even though the Vajpayee Government’s economic performance was great, India was still a poor country. And the poor sections of society did not like the campaign based on what they perceived as benefits only for the rich.
The merits of the case are irrelevant. The fact is that the BJP campaigned on its economic record and the INC took it apart bit by bit. The BJP made economy the cornerstone of its campaign and it lost.
The 2024 Elections came pretty close
The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections came very close towards being an Economy election. Every metric indicates that the mood of the electorate on the economy was not very optimistic. It was also the first Lok Sabha Elections since the Covid-19 pandemic. It is not really surprising that the economic sentiment of the country was low under the circumstances.
It’s a big ‘what if’ now but one wonders whether the INC would have fared better if Rahul Gandhi’s core election issue had been the economy rather than ‘Jitni Abadi Utna Haq’ (JAUH). The economy did feature prominently in INC’s election campaign. But it was overshadowed by Rahul Gandhi’s obsession with JAUH.
It allowed the BJP to respond to it with a stronger Hindutva message. The Prime Minister himself laid on to Hindutva strongly after the first phase of the elections. Somewhere along the way, even the economic aspects of JAUH were lost. All people remembered is that the INC will take away their hard earned wealth if they returned to power.
That wasn’t enough to hand BJP the majority on its own but more than enough to secure a comfortable third term for Narendra Modi. The economic sentiment was not very good but in the end, the election was fought over JAUH and Hindutva, not the economy.
The First Economy Election in 25 Years
The year is 2025 and the BJP has settled many cultural disputes of the Indian Polity. The BJP has abrogated Article 370 and it is never coming back. The NDA has implemented the CAA. The Ram Mandir has reached its natural conclusion. These are settled disputes and the BJP cannot rely on them as campaign promises.
The BJP has to find some credible alternatives at the national level. National Security will remain a significant platform and it appears that the BJP is trying to add illegal immigration to the platform. In addition to that, the BJP has to find new platforms to keep its United Spectrum of Hindu Votes (USHV) together.
The INC, on the other hand, will continue to rely heavily on JAUH, Caste Census and reservations going forward. It did not work for them in 2024 but the nature of the Indian electorate is fickle. It could very well end up winning them the elections in 2029.
But these are issues that are lacking steam in and of themselves. Caste Census in Karnataka and Bihar and Telangana have not yielded any fruitful results. INC Governments conducted two of them. It also allows the BJP to rely on cultural messages for its 2029 campaign.
Economy will be the first among many factors
While JAUH and Caste Census will feature prominently in 2029 Lok Sabha Elections, I believe that it’s the Economy that will determine the results in the end. If the NDA Government succeeds in delivering enough jobs and growth in the next 4 years, it will return to power for a historic 4th consecutive term. If it fails to do so, then it will not be able to negate the effects of anti-incumbency.
As I have said before, Indian Politics is in an era of Radical Depolarisation. Ideological platforms will not be enough for the ruling government to tide over anti-incumbency. The INC is currently targeting the NDA Government through a negative campaign, the goal of which in and of itself is to fuel negativity.
Unfortunately, it does not seem the BJP can tide over this with some new cultural agenda. Things can change in the future but as things currently stand, it does not seem that way. What will help them combat this negativity is a strong economic performance that will breed a new era of optimism.
Of course, there will be many factors at play in 2029 and 4 years is a long time in politics. Rahul Gandhi has a remarkable ability to shoot himself in the foot. There are many other INC leaders that suffer from foot-in-the-mouth syndrome as well. These things will undoubtedly make the job easier for the BJP. But there are sufficient indications right now that the results in the end will be determined by the state of the economy.
