The Nobel Peace Prize, to me, (especially when I think Barack Obama and his “achievement” of dropping 26172 bombs during his last year in office) remains a shiny trinket cooked up by a Swedish baron who thought blowing things up deserved a diplomatic encore. The same now dangles like a carrot before Donald J. Trump. He has been chasing it with the zeal of a matador. Honestly, if this were his Abraham Accords days when he got Middle East to swap swords for handshakes, I would see some solid merit. And even though he is not remotely as harmful internationally as Obama was, I cannot say the same in 2025. Yes, that he has been nominating himself louder than your friendly Bollywood star at those garish movie premieres, remains a source of personal amusement.
Betting on the Orange Odds
Why, you ask, is he not a good choice? Well, look at the odds for starters. Bookies give him a 28% shot. Though that is definitely better than Greta Thunberg, who is busy getting herself kidnapped/detained (pick your choice) these days, but still looks quite shaky. We outsiders can call it 50-50, if we are feeling charitable.
A One-Man League of Nations
There is that slightly funny aspect of the chatter. He has been peace-mongering like a one-man League of Nations. A League with a penchant for red ties and social media rants written with block letters. Donald Trump claims that he has halted seven wars. Ukraine is on pause (I don’t know what that means); Iran and Israel are trading momos (instead of missiles); India is so bogged down with his tariffs that they have begun considering Pakistan as their friend. And that is not all; he is hinting at an eighth. The crux: Nobody’s done that! Will I get the Nobel?
As subtle as the stubble burning season.
A Coterie of Dubious Cheerleaders
What is funnier is the nominations that are pouring in from his close coterie of admirers. Something about their character there. Like Pakistan is perhaps sending glowing notes to the Norwegian committee, praising the advent of this orange hue amidst them with his “ceasefire” deal that saved their rear ends from being cooked by Indian missile fire. Cambodia perhaps thinks that he is a chess grandmaster; and then there is Azerbaijan that perhaps wants the world to collectively bow down to honour the orange hue after they got what they wanted in their scuffle with Armenia.
Oslo’s Sieve and History
The Nobel committee, sipping coffee in Oslo’s frosty halls, sifts through 338 nominees. These are about 244 individuals and 94 groups. Trump has the support of precedent: four U.S. presidents have won, from Teddy Roosevelt to Jimmy Carter. And frankly, it is the strange case of Barack Obama that seems his best friend in this journey. Obama bagged the prize in his second year. He had nothing, literally nothing in terms of achievement by then. He proceeded through his term by continuing to burn Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, oversaw the creation of the ISIS, and invented the “Good Taliban”. Trump, despite his crass antics, has been much better.
A Norwegian Snag?
But here is the snag: It looks like the Norwegians probably won’t buy this Trumpian idea of “peace”. Maybe they think it is too loud, too tweet-driven, and too likely to end with trade wars that could hurt the EU. Maybe they do not approve of Trump’s friendship with Putin, or his siding with Bibi in the affairs of Gaza. After all, I keep reading that EU has discovered solace in supporting the Palestinian cause, with those violent street rioters acting as their shiny beacon, their guiding light. Or maybe they are under pressure from the same sources that pressured them to part with the Peace Prize money when Obama was the blue-eyed poster boy.
A Michelin Dream
So, what is it going to be? Donald Trump, who craves the Peace Prize like a Michelin star, strutting Oslo’s stage with his hair defying Nordic winds, proclaiming, “World, you’re welcome!”? Or internet trolls and mainstream editorials making fun once the Prize slips away to one or more of those 300+ nominees? For all his deal-making bravado, Trump’s Nobel quest feels more like a mirage in the global desert. The world will watch as the committee decides whether to crown the orange hue or let it fade out as a footnote. Either way, the saga of Trump’s Nobel chase will keep the internet buzzing with memes and mockery.
