Here is an unfiltered strategic autopsy what I mean by “powder keg”. The fuse is already burning. Bagram Airbase, that once used to be the beating heart of America’s longest war, was, till about a few months ago, a rusting monument to hubris. But it suddenly has re-entered the crosshairs of global power. Why? Because Donald Trump wants it back. And the Taliban do not seem interested in what he wants. Sitting by Afghanistan, the Pakistani generals are raring to count more free dollars. India circles quietly. China and Russia are drawing red lines about the limits of Uncle Sam’s Central Asian adventures. And somewhere in the shadows, the ISKP sits in anticipation — for help, support, and new lifelines. Its knives are out, and they are not for Washington, but for everyone else.
ISKP isn’t the dog, it is the leash
Forget the headlines screaming “ISIS/ISKP is a threat to America.” History is clearer than any briefing. Here is what you have:
In Syria, ISIS rolled oil tankers to Turkey under U.S. air cover. Not one convoy was touched till about 2015. It was only after Putin began his bombing campaign (September 2015), the West was (probably) forced to drop a few bombs. The Pentagon’s $500 million rebel-training farce produced five fighters – while TOW missiles poured into ISIS hands through “moderate” cutouts. Al-Tanf base was a transit lounge. Zero U.S. casualties.
The pattern was never broken; it was perfected.
ISKP is the Afghan remix. Four years since the U.S. withdrawal, there have been three drone strikes – all symbolic, all after media storms. Their funding flows through the same pipelines: the UAE hawala networks, and crypto wallets that once greased ISIS.
The recruits come from the same Tajik and Uzbek IMU circles the CIA armed in the 1980s.
The mission is identical: justify over-the-horizon operations, pressure the Taliban for hostages and lithium, and keep China’s Belt and Road bleeding while cracking Russia’s CSTO flank. Moral? ISKP is not an enemy. It is a proxy on retainer, and Washington holds the leash.
Bagram could be India’s wing
Since September 2025, there has been chatter about India’s Ayni Airbase shuttering in Tajikistan. While the fact is that India and Tajikistan did not extend the two decades long contract after 2022, it is a possibility that this base was New Delhi’s foothold in Central Asia, complete with runway and radars. And Bagram, just 40 miles north of Kabul, is the natural replacement.
The rumoured October deal is surgical: a “civilian-tech enclave.” No tricolour flags. No Rafale squadrons. Just Indian technicians, SIGINT arrays, and armed drones under Taliban cover. The payoff is brutal efficiency. An air bridge to the CARs bypasses Pakistan entirely. Real-time intelligence on the players flows through Taliban liaison. And in Baluchistan, BLA cells receive deniable air cover, while Pakistan bleeds from the west while staring east at the Andamans. The gain? Encirclement along two axes. India does not need permission.
The Taliban’s Durand Dream
The Taliban may or may not not want Indian jets. What they want is Indian presence. That is a major leverage. The offer of a Bagram “civilian zone” is a crowbar against Pakistan. The floating line is that Afghanistan wants air-readiness against Pakistan’s air strikes. India is happy to help. Across the other end, the TTP already collects taxes in Pakistan’s Bajaur and runs sharia courts in the Khyber region. Hibatullah’s speeches now dismiss the Durand Line as “British ink.” If Trump sends boots, the Taliban pivots: America becomes the enemy, India the stabilizer. The merger accelerates. A bonafide Pashtun continuum could then stretch from Chitral to DI Khan. Pakistan’s strategic depth is cremated, and the ashes scattered over KPK and Gilgit-Baltistan.
The Taliban do not need to win wars. They need to survive them; and India is their insurance policy.
Pakistani “Jarnails” and their love for free-Dollars
Asim Munir returned from Washington in August 2025 with $2 billion in crypto, minerals, and drone corridors. Two months later, 1,200 TTP “arrests” filled headlines. Note that these were all foot soldiers; the leadership was untouched. This is not incompetence. This is business. The Pakistani Playbook is etched in stone: pocket U.S. cash, drip-feed ISKP and IMU, and bomb villages for CNN. The generals deliver eyes for Washington and pressure for the Taliban. In return, they get villas in Dubai.
Chaos for them is not a problem, it is a product. And they have a PhD in Chaos Sales.
The Anti-US Alliance: One Line, Three Powers
The Moscow Format in October 2025 was unanimous: “No foreign military infrastructure in Afghanistan.”
China sees US in Bagram as a dagger at Xinjiang and the BRI. Russia sees a NATO proxy in its CSTO backyard, and the prospective opening of another front after Ukraine. India sees a U.S.-Pak joint needling in Kashmir and Northeast. The motives differ; the red lines don’t.
India could want soft access; China and Russia might want zero access. But all three agree: American boots mean regional war. The axis is not ideological. It is structural.
The possible Trigger Chain; how could it look like?
Trump demands on Bagram hardens. The Taliban refuse. Washington pays Pakistan. The Pakistani generals feed ISKP. The Taliban hardens and offers India the civilian slot. New Delhi accepts. Indo-U.S. ties freeze. China and Russia arm the CARs. Would the Durand dissolve as a result? That then leads to a “very Pakistani fracture” and that propels Bagram to become Asia’s Berlin Wall.
The Fault Line
ISKP is the leash. India is probably pushing for Bagram. It is a smarter, closer, deadlier alternative to Ayni. The Taliban (and also the BLA probably?) are raring to weaponize India to erase the Durand. Pakistani generals are monetizing instability and buying villas in UAE. China, Russia, and India are united against U.S. boots. Trump’s precious 2% grasp on the state of global affairs meets the 98% multipolar wall of flux. If he crosses the line from drones to boots, the spiral is no longer theory. It is timeline. The fuse is short. The match is in Washington’s hand.
Finally, for those wondering about how might the US respond if Pakistan’s geography cracks? Well, here is a short answer: The U.S. doesn’t do sentiment in geopolitics. It does leverage. Pakistan’s army was never an ally; it was a paid firewall. When the wall cracks, Washington won’t mourn. It will redeploy the cash to whoever holds regional levers, the Pak nuclear aspect has probably been sorted after Operation Sindoor.
So, stay tuned, because the next move won’t be in Islamabad. It will be in Baluch deserts and Bagram hangars. And I will catch you there when the dust settles.
