The elite Central Committee of China’s ruling Communist Party ( CPC ) will hold a closed-door meeting from Monday to Thursday to discuss, among other things, the country’s 15th five-year development plan.
China in 2025, faces a convergence of economic, demographic, and political challenges that looks like is eroding its global stature. The real estate sector, once 25-30% of GDP, is collapsing. Home prices are down 11% since 2021 and new construction dropping 20% in early 2025. Household debt exceeds 60% of GDP. The youth unemployment tops at 20%, and growth languishes below 4%. A fertility rate below 1.1 signals a shrinking workforce and pension crisis. And with one child supporting multiple elders, military recruitment and innovation is facing a chokehold.
Militarily, the PLA’s unreadiness is evident. There have been internal purges that expose loyalty fractures. Politically, Xi Jinping is having to contend with elite dissent and public protests in key regions. There is the added factor of external pressures from U.S. tariffs and rare earth export bans.
These factors could well highlight a nation facing a strategic dilemma. There has to be a choice made between the survival of a Xi-led regime, or the return to the old economic dynamism.
The Upcoming Plenum and China’s Dilemma
The Third Plenum of the 20th CPC Central Committee, held in July 2024, was a pivotal moment. It signalled a potential shift in China’s trajectory. Intended to chart economic reforms, the plenum instead underscored Xi’s personality-driven prioritization of ideological control and national security over pragmatic growth, with vague commitments to “high-quality development” amid a faltering economy.
The absence of bold stimulus or structural fixes were painfully visible after the 20th CPC. This later coupled with Xi’s health rumours and skipped public addresses, and the social media took to speculating about a post-Xi transition, potentially through a National Security Council restoring collective rule.
It is true that Xi’s personal ambitions, particularly his signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is faltering. CPEC is a glaring example. Pakistan’s $131B external debt (22% Chinese-held) and Gwadar’s operational failures highlight a strategic misstep. It continues to drain China’s resources while yielding minimal geopolitical returns. Would the coming plenum maintain their silence on BRI? Overlook the fact that a realistic recalibration stares them in their face? Xi would perhaps still be reluctant to pivot, but what about the rest of the members?
Multipolar Alliance is a Better Idea
China’s weakened position opens the door for a strategic coalition with Russia, India, and Global South partners to counter U.S. hegemony. Russia’s energy and Eurasian logistics complement India’s manufacturing strength and Indian Ocean access. These two could mitigate China’s supply-chain vulnerabilities and sanctions risks. A comprehensive alliance could advance de-dollarization via mutual currency-based trade, fostering tech sovereignty and climate resilience. Such collaboration offers China reform space while enabling partners to navigate global volatility.
India’s Pivotal Role
China should realize that a prospective alliance with India could do them a world of good. Recent Sino-Indian progresses, like the 2024 border disengagement, or the 2025 flight resumptions, and trade reactivation, set the stage for deeper ties.
If India successfully reshapes its China-focus through a drive for economic integration, an investment in shaping multilateral systems, and by staying focussed on fostering border stability, then we could well be looking at a better-balanced Asia.
Reimagining the Indo-China Connectivity Axis
Make no mistake: by 2035, the faltering China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) could trigger a transformative shift. CPEC’s $29B debt burdens Pakistan, with Gwadar port handling just 3% of Karachi’s cargo amid insurgencies. This, while the CMEC stalls in Myanmar’s civil war, exposing BRI’s fragility.
Enter something along lines of Indo-China Connectivity Axis (ICCA): a corridor rerouting trade from Xinjiang via Nepal to Kolkata/Chennai ports, bypassing Gilgit-Baltistan’s volatility and border disputes. Feasibility builds on 2025’s border thaw, with NITI Aayog’s stake proposals evolving into joint Special Economic Zones (SEZs). India’s SAGAR initiative (Security and Growth for All in the Region) could grant China warm-water port access. Across the other end quantum-secure rail (India’s 2030 grid) could link Chabahar, integrating Afghanistan via the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This could slash China’s sea-lane risks by 40%.
This is the “Truel” equilibrium: copybook China, India, and Russia hedging to usher in multipolarity in its truest sense. Shared natural resources, trade in mutual currencies, and joint Indo-Pacific-Arctic patrols… I prefer to call it the United Alliance of Asia.
Summing Up
New CPC power holders, potentially emerging in 2027’s Congress, must redefine “rejuvenation” by scaling back Xi’s delusional Pakistan-centric gambit. Engaging India on the other hand, through the ICCA aligns with multi-polar goals. China, leveraging India’s ports to offset BRI’s losses could well foster regional stability. This would require China’s leadership to prioritise pragmatic alliances over Xi’s ego-driven vision of centralised dominance.
