Amidst the recent talks of US reaching a nuclear deal with Iran with President Donald Trump declaring that America is closer than ever on signing a nuclear deal, its foreign minister Abbas Aragchi has dismissed that Iran has received any written proposal. As of now, the Shia’ite country has said that the lifting of sanctions is a prerequisite to any nuclear deal with the USA.
However, we will discuss the threat that the Shia’ite regional power poses with its nuclear ambitions on the geopolitical stability in the region. If the country succeeds in its ambitions to have a nuclear arsenal and attaining nuclear warfare capabilities is not just a regional concern but has become a global concern. While Middle East simply cannot afford a nuclear race among its regional powers, with the likes of Turkey, Yemen, already embroiled in several conflicts, a nuclear power Iran will inevitably accelerate a dangerous rivalry in an unstable region like the Middle East involving nuclear powered weapons.
Iran’s quest to attain nuclear capabilities started from the 1950s with the U.S.-backed “Atoms for Peace” initiative. Islamic Revolution of 1979 delayed the program which again regained momentum in the 1990s. However, Iran’s opacity with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised international concern over the true motive of its nuclear efforts : peaceful energy or weapons development.
The Middle East already struggles because of various differences in political and religious factions. The Shia-majority state is often involved in proxy wars with Sunni-majority powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In an unpredictable and volatile region like Middle-East, it will cause even more strategic imbalances leading to dangerous conflicts.
1. Nuclear Arms Race
As discussed above, if Iran develops nuclear weapons it would likely trigger a nuclear race in the region with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey actively chasing their own nuclear ambitions. The Brookings Institution had issued a stern warning that such a race would be catastrophic as it would greatly increase the risk of nuclear miscalculation, falling of nuclear tech in the hands of extremist or rebel groups.
2. Iran and its Proxy Militia
The Middle-Eastern country controls a large network of proxy militias across the middle east region and Africa which could galvanize if Iran attains nuclear power.
- Hezbollah (Lebanon):
Iran provides significant support to Hezbollah, including weapons and training. They have been involved in violent struggle against Israel and controls a network in Lebanon. - Houthis (Yemen):
UN reports confirm Iranian weapons support to the Houthi Rebels. They have attacked Saudi infrastructure and USA aircrafts. - Shia’ite Militias (Iraq):
It has also backed military factions within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces and disrupted U.S. presence and promoted Iran’s. Iran provides funding, training, and weapons to these Shiite groups.
3. Israel’s Security
The Shia’ite regional power is an existential threat to Israel. While Iranian leaders are prone to making provocative statements against Israel including threats, Israel continues to monitor Tehran’s activities closely. On the other hand, the Israeli government has openly confronted Iran that it would conduct proactive strikes to neutralize any nuclear threat.
4. End of U.S. Regional Influence
Iran with nuclear weapons would destabilize U.S. leadership in the Middle East. As per Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), U.S. allies may raise USA’s ability to guarantee safety, and thus usher independent defense framework or new alliances in the region.
5. Global Energy Security
As of now, the Strait of Hormuz is an important chokepoint for global transport of oil , the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that 20% of the world’s petroleum passes through it. The Nuclear powered Iran may use the Strait of Hormuz to counter international pressure or hit back economically, which would make the energy markets even more volatile.
6. Undermining the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
Iran acquiring nuclear arsenal will undermine the NPT which primarily focus on curbing the development of nuclear weapons. If it succeeds in developing nuclear weapons, it would render the NPT invalid and other countries might leave the treaty altogether, and thus destroy any effort to stop nuclear proliferation as warned by the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs.
The Iranian State with nuclear weapons will reshape the power balance in the middle east and and create a serious global threat. A huge risk of accelerating the nuclear race in the middle east, embolden the militant proxies, undermine U.S. influence, threaten the global energy routes, and weaken any international arms control agreements. Stopping the Shia’ite country from achieving its nuclear goals is crucial to maintain global security.
