Look, I get it. When you hear “Israel attacks Iran” there’s a part of you that might want to pop the champagne. Iran’s no saint — its regime’s got a laundry list of sins, from human rights abuses to meddling in proxy wars. But before you start celebrating, let’s hit pause and zoom out. For those of us watching from South and Central Asia, this isn’t just a Middle East drama.
It’s a ticking time bomb, and the fallout could hit us hard. Iran, for all its flaws, has been a counterweight to the kind of Sunni extremism that’s been a wrecking ball across the region. If Iran goes down, we’re not just talking about a new government in Tehran. We’re talking about a potential rerun of ISIS, Al Qaeda, and their ilk, with shockwaves rippling from Damascus to Delhi.
Iran is the “balance”
Let’s start with the obvious: Iran’s a major player in keeping Salafi Wahhabism in check. That’s not me waving a flag for the ayatollahs — it’s just the reality. Iran’s Shia axis, flawed as it is, has been a firewall against the kind of Sunni militancy that thrives on chaos. Think about it: except for Hamas, which is its own messy story, Iran’s proxies like Hezbollah or the Houthis, or the Shia mobs of Iraq and KSA, have largely focused on their own turf or countering Saudi-backed Wahhabi influence. That’s not charity; it’s strategy. That has kept the likes of ISIS and Al Qaeda, to a large extent, from running wild. Iran’s been the brake pedal on a car that was already careening toward a cliff.
Now, picture this: Israel’s bombs keep falling, and Iran’s regime crumbles. Tempting to think that’s a win for stability, right? Wrong. If Iran falls, you’re not getting a shiny new democracy. History doesn’t work that way. Libyans, or Syrians might have a couple of lessons for you there.
GWOT is a scam
Look at Iraq after the U.S. toppled Saddam. The Ba’ath Party’s collapse didn’t usher in freedom; it birthed ISIS. Yes, that’s where it all started. The U.S., in its infinite wisdom, dismantled a regime tailor-made for that particular region and its people, left a power vacuum, and watched as jihadists filled the void. Fast-forward to today, and you’ve got the U.S., Turkey, and also possibly Israel, who’ve all, at one point or another, turned a blind eye to ISIS or its affiliates when it suited their goals. Al Qaeda? A U.S. creation, born in the Afghan mujahideen days. ISIS? A monster that grew in the rubble of Iraq. These aren’t accidents; they’re the fruits of geopolitical chess games.
If Iran goes down tomorrow, the board gets flipped. A regime change in Tehran would likely bring a government that’s pliant to Israel and the U.S. Great for them, sure. But for the rest of Asia? It’s a nightmare waiting to happen. Without Iran’s counterweight, Sunni extremist groups — bankrolled these days by a particular Gulf state and emboldened by a weakened Shia axis — could surge again. We’ve seen this movie before: ISIS-ISKP, Al Qaeda-HTS, LeT-JeM — rebooted and remixed. Or some new brand of chaos.
And it won’t stay in the Middle East. South and Central Asia are already dealing with their own extremist headaches — from the smattering of jihadist cells in Uzbekistan to an entire terrorist state like Pakistan. These groups thrive on instability, and a weakened Iran would be like pouring gasoline on a smouldering fire.
Salafism is a handy tool
Why does this matter? Because Sunni proxies aren’t just a Middle East problem — they’re a global tool. From erstwhile Yugoslavia and Russia’s Chechnya to India’s Kashmir, from Morocco’s unrest to Bangladesh’s borderlands, these groups are used as leverage. Sometimes it’s to topple governments; sometimes it’s to keep them in line. And who’s pulling the strings? Often, it’s the usual suspects: states like the U.S. or their allies, who’ve mastered the art of playing both sides. Iran’s preoccupation with its Shia proxies, for all its downsides, has kept this Sunni proxy game from spilling over too far. Without that check, the floodgates open.
Its trouble for Asia
Let’s not sugarcoat it: Iran’s no hero. Its regime’s oppressive, its proxies are messy, and its rhetoric often fans the flames. But in geopolitics, you don’t pick saints — you pick balances. And for this end of the world, Iran’s been a necessary evil, holding back a worse one. If Israel’s rampage tips that balance, the consequences won’t be confined to Tehran or Tel Aviv. South Asia’s already a tinderbox — India’s got its border tensions, and the Central Asian states are no better, with authoritarian regimes barely holding it together.
Russian Caucasus remains a ticking time bomb, and China has its Uyghur problems that it doesn’t want to talk about. Throw in carefully balanced regions like Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, add to that the resurgent wave of Sunni extremism catalysed by Bangladesh and Pakistan, and you’ve got a recipe for chaos that no one’s ready to handle.
So, what’s the play here? I’m not saying Israel shouldn’t defend itself or that Iran’s a model citizen. But we need to stop pretending geopolitics is a morality pageant. Every bomb that falls on Iran risks a chain reaction, and Asia’s the one that’ll feel the heat. A regime change might make headlines in Washington or Jerusalem, but in Delhi, Dhaka, or Dushanbe, it’s a different story. We’ve seen what happens when power vacuums are left to fester — ISIS, Al Qaeda, and their offshoots don’t need an invitation. They show up anyway.
The lesson? Be careful what you wish for. Iran’s fall might sound like a victory, but it could unleash a storm that makes the last decade look like a warm-up. For those of us in Asia, this isn’t just about picking sides — it’s about surviving the fallout. And right now, with Israel’s bombs raining down, that survival feels a little less certain.
