Karol Nawrocki, Poland’s freshly minted president, is about to step into a political minefield. His nationalist credentials flutter like a red cape in front of Brussels’ bureaucratic bull. Having clinched victory by a whisker (barely 2%), his mid-term prospects hinge on how he navigates the EU’s expectations, Poland’s domestic divides, and the global populist wave. How might this play out especially vis-à-vis the EU’s unelected overlords? Let us try to unpack this.
Karol Nawrocki is a historian and proud torchbearer of the Law and Justice Party (PiS). Naturally, he isn’t exactly the EU’s dream date. His platform remains steeped in Polish sovereignty and traditional values. That is a definite clash with Brussels’ love for supranational control and leftist ideals. The EU has a handy playbook however, for dealing with such troublemakers. It comprises of legal probes, funding freezes, public shaming, trumped-up charges, and so on. Based on the EU’s recent antics with nationalists like Romania’s Calin Georgescu (election annulled), France’s Marine Le Pen (banned for “embezzlement”), and Germany’s AfD (under “extremist” scrutiny), candidates like Nawrocki, who sit on a razor-thin margin and with no room to manoeuvre, could find the playbook to be a potent adversary.
Assuming the man manages to stick around for the next 1-2 years, his relationship with the EU will likely follow three possible paths, each with its own probabilities based on Brussels’ behavior and Poland’s history of defiance. Let us summarize them quickly.
Compliance under pressure: The Karol Nawrocki Way?
I would give this a 50% chance. Nawrocki is aware of his shaky mandate, and Poland’s reliance on EU funds. Poland received €137 billion from the 2014-2020 budget. So he knows that he has to play nice to avoid sanctions. The EU has both carrots and sticks at this point. A carrot could be a proposal to release the withheld recovery funds. Similarly, a stick could be Article 7 proceedings, to nudge him toward alignment on issues like judicial reforms or Ukraine aid.
The PiS members, the hardliners, the voters, would grumble if he bends. But what other choices does he have? And if that comes to pass there would be a silent, slow erosion of his nationalist credentials, and he would be a domesticated tiger by mid next year, roaring only at stuff the Brussel-bureaucrats want him to roar at. The EU loves a good domestication story, after all.
A defiant stand-off
This, let’s say, has a 30% chance. If Nawrocki channels his inner Jarosław Kaczyński and doubles down on PiS’s anti-EU rhetoric — say, vetoing EU policies or cozying up to… well, there is always the Trump Administration – then Brussels will crank up the heat. That is when that playbook will make itself visible. There could be legal challenges thrown towards him. There is also the aspect of sanctions; that would hit Poland’s economy (5.8% GDP growth projected for 2025 could take a hit). The EU’s recent moves against Romania’s Georgescu suggest a major likelihood of lawfare against Nawrocki if he strays too far. If he insists on it, then, my guess is that by mid-2027, he would be a populist martyr, rallying Poles and risking isolation in Europe. Think Viktor Orban of Hungary.
Karol Nawrocki victory a catalyst for Populist revival?
Then, there is a thin chance that I remain eternally hopeful about. That one day, the EU’s sanctimonious Lord & Master attitude would face a violent backlash and galvanize the different voters within the European states – Polish voters included. Would Nawrocki be the catalyst? If Brussels overplays its hand somehow, say, by meddling in Polish election results, would Nawrocki’s nationalist stance gain sufficient momentum to snowball into the change that Europeans are eagerly waiting for? Poland’s history of resisting external control (remember Solidarity?) gives this speculation legs. The EU’s own data shows 70% of Poles already distrust Brussels, by the way.
Realistically speaking…
The tipping point comes if Nawrocki pushes a policy — like stricter border controls or rejecting EU climate mandates — that triggers a direct clash. The EU’s response will depend on its own cohesion at that point; if France or Germany lean populist by 2027, Brussels might soften. But with Ursula von der Leyen’s crew still calling the shots, I’d bet for punitive measures against Nawrocki by mid-2027 if he doesn’t toe the line.
His narrow mandate means he’ll need to pick battles wisely — defy too much, and he’s a target; comply too much, and he’s a sellout. Either way, the EU-leftists will keep their playbook ready, and Nawrocki’s mid-term will be less a presidency and more a balancing act. Unless… he decides to turn the game.
