The apparent failure of Chinese-made HQ-9 air defense systems to intercept any of India’s missiles during Operation Sindoor exposes potential vulnerabilities in China’s flagship SAM system.
Operation Sindoor, launched on May 7, 2025, involved 24 precision missile strikes targeting nine terrorist infrastructure sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The strikes, executed with advanced weaponry like SCALP cruise missiles, HAMMER precision bombs, and loitering munitions, were focused enough to avoid Pakistani military facilities. Moreover, reports seem to indicate that none of these missiles were intercepted by Pakistan’s air defense systems.
Now this raises questions about the effectiveness of China supplied missile defence system – the HQ-9 series.
Why did the HQ-9 Fail during Operation Sindoor?
There could be several reasons that I can think of:
Limits of Technology: The HQ-9 has a limited interception envelope. You fly multiple low-flying cruise missiles or use generous amount of loitering munitions, and the system would falter. India knows this, and probably exploited this. That aside, HQ-9 offers a single layer net, unlike S-400, which offers multiple layers of defence. A couple of analysts have also assumed that the HQ-9 could have had problems in tracking and detecting low-alt, terrain hugging, hi-speed movers that India has used – given the nature of the geography in which the operation took place last night.
A Patchwork of System: Pakistani air defense network is known to be the result of a mix of old Western system and their new China fetish. If that is factually correct, then integration needed for real-time coordination between radar, command systems, and missile launchers could be an issue. These kinds of system need perfect dovetailing of all the components, and any bureaucracy that prefers short-term profits over long-term vision would definitely be in for surprises in cases like these.
India Playing it Tactically: By launching Operation Sindoor from within Indian airspace, and by using stand-off weapons like BrahMos and SCALP, Indian Army not only reduced the Pakistani reaction window, but also probably capitalized on a range that was perhaps out of the scope of HQ-9’s engagement zone. I think Indian Army’s previous experience (about Pakistan’s air defence pluses and minuses) during the Balakot strikes was put to good use last night.
Impact on China’s Arms Sales
This apparent failure of a Chinese System, could echo in the market negatively for China. China’s arms export accounts for 5.9% of the global arms sales. This incident could – with a little media support – amount to reputational damage for China. The HQ-9 is marketed as an alternative for Western and Russian systems. Operation Sindoor could put a question mark against that claim. How that fares among potential buyers like Thailand, Turkey, or sundry Middle Eastern states that China has been trying to get interested, then remains to be seen.
Then comes the prospects of a slide in the market share. If Chinese systems – marketed as economical and accessible, especially compared to Patriot or S400 – fails to live up to its cost versus efficacy tag, then there is no reason why buyers would not want to relook at the Western or the Russian systems. And that could provide Western suppliers as well as Russia a neat window of opportunity.
The Geopolitical Fallout of Operation Sindoor
There could be related geopolitical fallouts too. Pakistan is the largest arms client of China. They might diversify. Of course, given the economic condition of Pakistan, it does look like that they do not have many choices. But the same cannot be said about other potential customers like Serbia, Turkey, or the KSA/UAE duo. Critics have always maintained that China could be using a superior grade system for their domestic defence, and an ‘export’ grade version for the market outside. If that turns out to be true then there could be several repercussions. These could impact the future balance of relationship between China and the states that Beijing is aiming to influence.
Summing Up…
Pakistan is strangely silent. Which means that there has been damage. This could either be a defensive collapse, or their choice to not engage, or both. Which could be due to the reasons mentioned above. This apparent failure of Chinese-made HQ-9 air defense systems during Operation Sindoor exposes potential vulnerabilities in China’s flagship SAM system. We would be keeping a watch on how that impacts the market confidence and China’s geopolitical levers, while keeping an eye on which all players rush to capitalize this opening.
