Mamata Banerjee and other leaders of the Trinamool Congress are up in arms against the BJP over what they say are attacks against the Bengali Community. The accusations against the BJP stems from the action taken against illegal immigrants in various BJP ruled states such as Haryana, Odisha and Assam. The BJP maintains that state governments are cracking down on illegal immigrants due to national security reasons. That hasn’t stopped the Trinamool Congress from attempting to turn it into a regionalist issue.
Meanwhile, in Bihar, RJD supremo Tejaswi Yadav is flirting with the idea of boycotting the assembly elections in the state due to the Election Commission’s ‘Special Intensive Revision’. The SIR has struck off over 60 lakh names from the voter list due to a multitude of reasons. These reasons include but are not limited to deaths of the people concerned and migration of the voters. In total, a minimum of 50 lakh names have been struck off the voter list. Meanwhile, the EC has asserted that the SIR will be conducted nationwide soon.
The SIR has not gone down well with the RJD. The party claims that it is a ruse to exclude legitimate citizens from the voter list. The party has presented no evidence thus far to support its claims. The TMC is opposing the SIR as well, saying that the exercise is “exclusionary” and its ultimate target is TMC voters in West Bengal. Rajya Sabha MP from the TMC, Sagarika Ghose, told NDTV, “We are going to oppose this tooth and nail in Bengal because we feel that Bengal is the real target. It is being done in Bihar but the real target is Bengal.”
BJP isn’t the only party affected by Depolarisation of Indian Politics
In an earlier article, I had highlighted the fact that a radical depolarisation of Indian politics is currently underway. There, I had focused primarily on the BJP and the implications for it in the near future. Here, I shall briefly discuss the manner in which the phenomenon has impacted opposition parties.
As we have observed, the NDA Government at the Center has undertaken multiple actions that would have dominated headlines only a few years ago. Now, however, those very same actions are mere footnotes on the back pages of newspapers that everybody skips through.
The deportation of illegal immigrants that is happening almost on a daily basis at the moment and the lukewarm response to the Waqf Amendment Bill are the most obvious examples of it. Despite much hue and cry from opposition parties, they utterly failed to capture the imagination of the masses.
The controversy surrounding the EC’s SIR and the crackdown on illegal immigrants in Haryana follows much along the same vein. The Trinamool Congress and the RJD are desperately attempting to turn them into major issues but people are simply not biting into it.
The crackdown on illegal immigrants primarily affects individuals from the Muslim Community. Even they are not particularly emotive about the subject. It’s quite a drastic departure from the conduct of Maulanas and Maulvis until recently.
Islamic organisations are generally extremely enthusiastic in getting themselves involved in issues that affect the Muslim community. However, this time around, they are conspicuously silent over the matter. Despite incendiary rhetoric from opposition parties, they are very much looking the other way.
Why is this so? Is psychological exhaustion a sufficient explanation for their behaviour? Or is there more to it than meets the eye?
Depolarisation is not the only explanation
US President Donald Trump has taken some unprecedented actions since returning to power for a second term. He has taken a host of decisions that critically impacts foreign nations. One of the most significant among them was the defunding of USAID.
The USAID has been involved in funding numerous protests against governments abroad. While they will not publicly admit having done so, and public information on the same is scarce, there have been sufficient breadcrumbs available in the public domain for those willing to search for them.
The USAID has consistently funded antisocial elements abroad to further their ideological objectives. India is no exception. There are several notable activists in India who have made a profession out of the art of orchestrating protests. They appear for Rohingyas and illegal immigrants in the Courts. They help organise protests on the streets. These activists do all this under the garb of serving humanity while receiving funds from USA and other countries.
The defunding of USAID has undoubtedly affected the ability of professional activists to mobilise crowds on the street. The exact extent of it is impossible to determine. Nonetheless, it can be said with a fair degree of certainty that the lack of funds has impacted activist sphere.
This still does not explain why opposition parties are failing to mobilise public sentiment. Perhaps, it is not a case of either/or. I guess both these reasons explain the phenomenon in parts.
Exhaustion is the greatest enemy in Politics
We frequently underestimate the amount of emotional investment that politics requires. It takes an immense amount of blood, sweat and toil for a satisfying stint in politics. And it has to be put in day after day after day. It is by no means easy.
Furthermore, it is only the politicians and party workers primarily who stand to benefit from the success of a political movement. Yes, citizens benefit too if they make the right choice. But they do not benefit due to their association with a political party. They benefit because the government they elected is working for the welfare of all citizens.
That is why any political movement has a very short tenure. The movement will dissipate after a certain time has passed, regardless of whether it is successful or not. The BJP is a victim of its own success in many ways. Similarly, the opposition parties are victims of their failures.
However, successful movements have a whole lot longer shelf lives than the ones that end in failure. Successful movements also have the opportunity to consolidate their successes. They have the opportunity to create conditions that negate the very necessity of those movements.
This is a luxury failures in politics do not have. And it is for this very reason that political movements that do not see any success for a long time exhaust themselves very quickly.
Nothing Succeeds like Success, Nothing Falters like Failure
How long can you expect a movement to keep going without any chance of success in the remote horizon? The opposition parties have limited their entire campaigns around opposition to a single man since 2013. How well has that worked out in the last 3 Lok Sabha elections? Defeat is the only result opposition parties have known since 2014.
Arvind Kejriwal has lost one election and completely disappeared from the political scene. No one even knows what he is up to since the Delhi Elections. Mahua Moitra has sustained the same intensity that propelled her into stardom a few years ago. Yet, she does not dominate headlines like she used to. Sagarika Ghose has consistently maintained the shrill decibel levels that earned her social media notoriety. Yet, not even trolls dignify her with a response anymore.
Umar Khalid and Sharjeel Imam have been rotting in prison for the past 5 years. And they very well could rot in prison for another 5. Meanwhile, Shehla Rashid has made peace with the BJP and is enjoying her life like never before. So, why would any youngster from JNU or Jadavpur University risk their future over political activism?
Kunal Kamra’s theatrics peaked with the verbal barrage against Arnab Goswami on a flight. It has all been downhill since then. Kanwariyas have engaged in problematic behaviour this year than any other year in recent history. Yet, the outrage against the Kanwar Yatra has been minimal, if not nonexistent.
The anti-Modi political movement is dead and BJP is benefitting from it
These developments indicate that the anti-Modi political movement has exhausted itself. The movement does not have any legs to stand on anymore. The opposition parties detest PM Modi, yes. But they cannot continue their politics solely on the basis of it.
The times have changed. So must political parties. The NDA Government is doing well to take advantage of the exhausted opposition. The crackdown on illegal immigrants and the Waqf Amendment Act is evidence of it. The EC is moving fast on long-pending revisions that would otherwise would have been stuck due to procedural hurdles.
The opposition parties have to recover their zest quickly and come out of their political exhaustion. If they don’t, the path to recovery will be further delayed.
