The success of Operation Sindoor has given cause for great joy in India. The circumstances are precisely the opposite on the other side of the border. The Line of Control and the International Border between India and Pakistan has heated up since the missile attacks against terrorist infrastructure. Simultaneously, the Pakistan Army is inventing stories that appear more outlandish by the second.
First, they claimed to have shot down two Indian jets right after declaring in a statement that no Indian jets entered Pakistani airspace during Operation Sindoor. Within half an hour, that number went up to three. By the time Indians had woken up to the news and were enjoying their morning cup of tea, the Pakistan Army had declared that they had shot down six Indian jets.
Sometime in between, the number was five. When Pakistan Defence Minister Khwaja Asif was questioned on CNN where was the evidence for his claims, his response was, “It’s all over social media.” Asif had also declared that the Pakistan Army had captured Indian Prisoners of War (POWs) as well. He had to walk back that claim because this was far too insane even for his own people.
What is the reason behind such wild claims by Pakistanis in positions of authority? Why are they making claims that cannot withstand even a second of half-serious scrutiny? The simple answer is that Pakistan at the moment is desperate for a PR win.
Why Pakistan is desperate for a PR win
Pakistan is so desperate for a PR win because they are fully aware they cannot score a victory on the military front. Any misadventure would invite a disproportionate Indian response, the cost of which would be far more than they are willing to pay.
At the same time, the entire legitimacy of the Pakistan Army is based on their self-proclaimed ability to defeat Hinduism and India. Pakistani civilians lionise them and revere them only because of the perception that they scored great military victories against India. It is a carefully crafted image that the Pakistan Army has cultivated for itself in order to distract national attention from their corruption.
This very image, which enables to maintain an iron grip in the country’s national affairs, has put them in an extremely tough spot. Operation Sindoor was far too public for them to brainwash their citizens into believing nothing happened. The average Pakistani is convinced that their Army can match India’s military might pound for pound. If they discovered that this is a lie that has been fed to them for generations, their wrath will be unleashed against the Pakistani Military as well.
However, a military response to Operation Sindoor would mean obliteration at the hands of India. As Professor John Mearsheimer points out, India’s real advantage comes into play “far up” the escalation ladder. From an Indian national security perspective, it is to India’s advantage if Pakistan gives them an excuse to climb up the escalation ladder. Pakistani are aware of this as well. Therefore, they would not want to give India reasons for doing the same.
On the other hand, no military response would mean the terrorists on their payroll could open a front against them. The civilians would turn against them and that could lead to higher recruitment in terrorist outfits. These terrorist outfits may then look to target India independently of the Pakistan Army, something they haven’t done so far. India has made it clear that terrorism emanating from Pakistani soil would have severe repercussions for them. We could very well be looking at a situation in the near future where the Pakistani Army has to combat their terrorists in addition to the Indian Army because they do not want to find out what happens if these terrorists succeed in their plot.
A PR Win: The only way out for our Nasty Neighbour
The choice for the Pakistan Army is between the fire and the frying pan. A PR win is their only way out of the hole they have dug for themselves. They can convince their population that they humiliated India, which will maintain the status quo with respect to the domestic political situation. It will also distract their brainwashed civilians enough to not ask important questions, such as how did India succeed in hitting Pakistan more than 100 kms inside its territory. More importantly, it will not give India an excuse to climb up the escalation ladder. It’s a Win-Win situation for them.
In such a situation, we can expect their fictional victories get increasingly more delusional if India keeps piling on the pressure, which it seems intent on doing. What is clear is that India holds all the cards. Will India give the Pakistan Army an off ramp? It doesn’t appear that way. The attempt by Pakistan to hit multiple locations was part of their attempt to forcibly extract a face saver for themselves. The Indian air defence systems foiled all of that.
The drone strikes at major Pakistani cities is a dead give away that India isn’t in the mood to offer Pakistan an easy escape. The drone strikes on Thursday have neutralised a Pakistani Air Defence System in Lahore. With India in an unforgiving mood, Operation Sindoor is turning out to be a existential crisis for the Pakistan Army.
