So? Donald Trump is back again wagging a finger at India, and this time he does that keeping Pakistani “oil” as his signet ring. You can laugh or cry at that, depending on your mood this week. Because Pakistan’s oil exploration history is a rollercoaster of hope, hype, and harsh realities, with or without the splash of Donald Trump’s bravado thrown in for 2025. So if you strip away all that posturing jazz and eyeball what is really cooking there, there is nothing much apart from an empty gas cylinder and some over used utensils.
Early days of gas and “glory”
It was in 1952 that Pakistan struck gas, for real, at the Sui field in Baluchistan. Call it the finding of a golden ticket in a kids’ candy bar. The country was barely five years old, and suddenly it had a massive natural gas deposit to flex. By the mid-1960s, the Toot oilfield in Punjab popped up. And some Soviet drillers helped that crude oil to flow by ’67. Though some think that more vodka flowed there then than oil, but we can let that pass.
Jump to ‘80s and ‘90s, and international bigwigs like Shell and BP came sniffing around, lured by promises of untapped riches. And why not. Discoveries like Mahi-1 and Bari-2, freshly concluded victory lap around Afghanistan, all that CIA friendship and money… those were the good old days! But the vibe was turned out to be more “tease” than “treasure.” Pakistan’s geology was a con, not a commitment. Eventually, all that excitement fizzed out.
Internet-era rhapsody
Since the 2000s a bit of a constant feature across all media houses have been the “discovery” of huge/massive/Juggernaut etc adjective laden oil or gas fields in and around Pakistan. And sometimes firms from here and there (like Vancouver) would visit, poke around, and then disappear. Till the next headline hit. Two decades down the imaginary oilfields, things got spicy again in 2020s. Emerged another “game changer”; this time around the Indus Basin. Faakir-1 (wonder who kept that name) well, in Sindh added some fuel to this latest round of hype. Pakistan got so excited in its own propaganda that it began auctioning offshore blocks.
Enter Donald Trump
Just about the time Pindi was learning that hype does not fill pipelines as well as oil and gas do, enter Trump. With a 2025 July, Truth Social post that’s peak Trump — brash, clueless, and indifferent: “We have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves… Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India some day!”
Promise the moon, details be damned. He is already about to pick some oil company to lead this “partnership”; FM Ishaq Dar is beaming — he finally has something else to talk about other than cricket. A deal is “very close” he notes.
Trump’s timing is no coincidence. Hours before, he slapped a 25% tariff on Indian imports, plus a “penalty” for New Delhi’s cozy oil deals with Russia. Then an oil pact with Pakistan. Typical MAGA-lined opening gambit, if you will. Think: Why would the U.S., already swimming in oil, poke around Pakistan’s unproven reserves when even China hasn’t bothered? Given the time that China has been around in Pakistan, they had been realistic enough to not go about “discovering” “game changer” reserves off sea, air, or land in and around Pakistan.
The real deal
Cut through the Trump-et, shall we? Pakistan’s got potential — maybe 9 billion barrels of oil. But proven reserves are a joke. They measure a measly 353.5 million barrels. Offshore Indus Basin could be a goldmine, but that is a $5 billion(!) gamble, which requires half a decade of rigorous work. Past flops of Exxon, ENI do not, in any way, inspire confidence.
Then there are security risks in Baluchistan. BLA owns the territory, and the TTP comes and goes as it pleases. AKs and landmines usually scare off investors. We have seen Shell dump its share to Aramco, and 15 oil blocks get zero international bidders. Ouch…!
Then there is the curse of resource. A country like Pakistan, with zero institutional efficiency, less than little infrastructure and top-order corruption, not to mention the general lawlessness, do not inspire high hopes about Return on Investment — the only language that transnationals understand.
In a nutshell? Donald Trump, or his office, might be eyeing a broader game here, trying to needle both China and India, and thus small finds like Faakir-1 is thinkable, but “massive” reserves? Ahem… that would take billions, decades, and a rock-solid security apparatus. Questions are: Who would put those billions? Who has that kind of time in today’s geopolitical context? And who can provide rock-solid security in a place like Pakistan?
The bottomline?
Pakistan’s oil story is a saga of big dreams and bigger letdowns. Trump’s latest stunt adds a wild card, but his “massive” claims seem more like him — more show and low substance. Pakistan could strike it rich, but it’s a long shot. For now, it’s less about gushing oil; it is more about a strutting Donald Trump.
