India’s deep ties with Russia, built on cheap oil and military gear, looks like is about to hit a rough patch. Because President Trump is pushing PM Modi to cut back on Russian oil. This in turn is promising to make this a messy affair, a high-stakes tug-of-war involving money power and global politics. Since mid-October 2025, Trump has been saying Modi promised to stop or reduce buying Russian oil (35-40% of India’s supply). He’s dangling a big trade deal (cutting U.S. tariffs from 50% to 15%) for this potential Indian action. New Delhi insists no such promise was made, stressing they will do what is best for India.
And then, on October 23, the U.S. suddenly slapped sanctions on Russia’s top oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, and began threatening anyone dealing with them. This led Reliance Industries, India’s biggest private oil buyer, to consider cancelling a major 500,000-barrel-a-day deal with Rosneft. This could, if it comes to pass, can potentially slash India’s Russian oil imports by a quarter.
Why Reliance’s Move Hurts
Reliance’s exit is a big deal. It is almost like a supermarket chain dropping a key supplier. Russian oil is cheap, helping India keep fuel prices low while our economy grows fast. Switching to pricier oil from places like Iraq, Qatar, or the U.S. could raise pump prices by 10-15%, hitting Indian wallets hard. Global oil prices are already up 5% (about $60-65 per barrel). That aside, there is also the very real issue of supply chain issues and tweaking of refineries.
Analysts’ and Media’s Take
Analysts are warning that the U.S. is trying to weaken India’s ties with Russia, not just on oil but also on military gear. This pressure could make India less independent, and Washington would keep pushing further if India gives in. Then there is the social media. Social media posts are calling this a “geopolitical theatre”. That this is a secret deal between the U.S., India, and Russia. The theory that is being spun is like this: Modi gets an excuse to cut Russian oil without looking weak, secures $12-15 billion in U.S. energy deals, and avoids tariff hikes. Trump looks tough on Russia, while Russia redirects oil to China or Turkey, dodging the sanctions’ sting. So, it is a win-win-win for Trump-Modi-Putin. A wild idea, but the timing of events makes it seem possible.
What Happens to Indo-Russian Ties?
The oil side is shaky. Reliance’s move and sanctions could cut Russian imports by 20-30% by year-end, and maybe 50% by mid-2026 if the U.S. trade deal happens. Yes, the military aspect of Indo-Russian relations stays strong. Russia continues supplying most of India’s weapons, and one expects these ties to continue. However, if Trump begins eyeing them too, then the social media posts calling this “theatre” starts finding itself on shaky grounds. Because then there emerges a win-lose-lose, with Trump as the only winner.
The Big Picture for India
This is probably not a breakup with Russia. There are many things that could flip in a moment’s notice: oil prices, trade deals, logistics, people, and priorities – the main driver these days being the fast pace of global geopolitics. So, let us keep an eye on Modi’s next steps: A possible meeting with Putin? Skipping U.S.-led summits? Something else?
My Personal Take
PM Modi’s track record suggests he has got the chops to navigate this high-stakes game. But this is not going to be a slam dunk. He is a master at balancing optics and strategy. One just needs to remember his tightrope walk with the U.S. during the 2019 Balakot crisis, India’s 2020 covid response, his BRICS summits while maintaining relationship with the Quad, buying of Russian oil for the maximum time possible… there are many of them. The guy has been the PM since 2014. And during his tenure, he has steered India through trade wars, border clashes, and global supply chain chaos, all while keeping his domestic base in-tact. This shows serious political savvy.
That said, this oil saga is a beast. Trump’s sanctions and tariffs have hit, and Reliance’s Rosneft pullout shows India is feeling the squeeze. Shifting 35-40% of India’s oil supply without tanking the economy (7% growth, inflation risks) or alienating Russia is a tight spot. Misjudging Putin’s reaction or imagining U.S. reliability could backfire. Modi has got the smarts; but success of this hinge on timing and luck. If he dodges tariffs, inks U.S. deals, and keeps Russia onside by mid-2026, it is a win. If not, he risks economic heat or a diplomatic fumble. He is capable, but this one’s a big gamble.
