For much of the twentieth century, the Gulf looked West. Oil tankers sailed to Rotterdam and Houston, sovereign wealth funds parked billions in London real estate and European football clubs, and American security guarantees kept regional rulers confident. The Atlantic world was the natural partner; Asia was a customer at the counter but then India happened.
But the story is shifting. By 2025, the Middle East is no longer leaning only on Washington or Brussels. It is increasingly turning toward India. And this tilt says something important about both the region’s recalibration and India’s arrival as a strategic power.
Oil and Gas: From Dependency to Strategic Partnership
Energy remains the backbone, but the dynamic has matured. The Indian Nation still imports over 85% of its crude oil and nearly half its LNG, yet the Gulf is not simply selling barrels. The relationship is moving into joint planning and long-term integration.
- UAE’s new LNG contracts: In August 2025, Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC Gas sealed a 15-year LNG deal with Indian Oil Corporation (1 million tonnes a year) and a 10-year contract with Hindustan Petroleum (0.5 million tonnes annually). A decade ago, India’s LNG imports from the UAE were negligible. Today, these supply lines are baked into New Delhi’s push to raise natural gas’s share in its energy mix from 6% today to 15% by 2030.
- Saudi Arabia’s refinery bet: In April 2025, Riyadh committed to jointly build two refineries in India. This isn’t just about selling oil. It’s about investing in Indian refining capacity, which already stands at more than 250 million tonnes a year, making India a regional hub for petroleum exports.
- OPEC+ tilts to India: In May 2025, producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Russia increased shipments to India by 375,000 barrels a day. Their combined share of India’s imports is now close to 78%, up from around 60% in 2015. That shift underscores a reality: the Gulf knows the real growth customer is not in Europe, where demand is flat, but in Asia and especially in India.
The numbers reflect the new balance. In 2013, Saudi oil exports to India were worth about $16 billion. By 2023, the figure exceeded $28 billion. With refineries under construction on Indian soil, that number will only deepen into structural interdependence.
Investment: Following the Growth Story
It isn’t only tankers moving eastward. The money is flowing too.
- Trade growth: The India–UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), signed in 2022, pushed bilateral trade above $85 billion in 2023, compared with $49 billion in 2010. Both sides are targeting $100 billion by 2030, a goal that looks achievable given the current trajectory.
- Sovereign wealth funds: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the UAE’s Mubadala are redirecting capital that once flowed to Europe into Indian renewables, logistics corridors, and digital tech. In effect, Gulf money is helping build India’s metro lines, solar parks, and data infrastructure.
- Remittances as lifeblood: Over nine million Indians live and work in the Gulf, sending home more than $40 billion annually. Back in 2010, India’s global remittances totaled about $55 billion. By 2023, they had hit $125 billion, with the Gulf consistently the largest contributor. That flow of household income sustains Indian consumption and binds families on both sides of the Arabian Sea.
Investment isn’t one-way anymore. Gulf states are not just suppliers; they are stakeholders in India’s growth story.
Security and Strategy: India Steps In
The Gulf’s reliance on U.S. military power is no longer as assured as it once was. America is recalibrating its footprint, Europe is distracted by crises, and China’s rise creates unease. Against this backdrop, India has emerged as a credible partner.
- Naval cooperation: The Indian Navy has deepened exercises with Oman and expanded port calls in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. With 70% of India’s crude imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz, maritime security is a shared interest.
- Counter-terrorism: Since 2018, India and the UAE have stepped up intelligence exchanges on extremist financing networks. Such cooperation, once unimaginable, now signals trust.
- Defense industry: India’s growing arms production, ranging from naval systems to drones, offers potential for co-development and procurement by Gulf states eager to diversify beyond U.S. and European suppliers.
India is not replacing the U.S. in Gulf security, but it is becoming a secondary anchor, offering both reassurance and balance.
Culture and People: The India Soft Power Advantage
If oil and capital are the hard ties, people are the invisible glue. With nine million Indians in the Gulf, it is hard to find a sector untouched by their presence, construction, health care, IT, education. These workers and professionals form one of the largest expatriate communities in the region.
The cultural spillover is equally significant. Bollywood blockbusters dominate Gulf cinemas. Indian restaurants, from roadside tandoori joints in Sharjah to fine dining in Riyadh, are staples of urban life. Yoga days, Sanskrit chairs at Gulf universities, and art exchanges add a civilizational depth that no trade agreement can replicate.
This is India’s quiet edge over China. Beijing has poured billions into Gulf ports and pipelines, but it cannot buy cultural familiarity or people-to-people trust.
Why the India shift, and Why Now?
Three larger global currents explain why the Gulf is turning eastward, specifically toward India.
- Energy transition uncertainty: Gulf economies know fossil fuel demand growth is slowing. India, projected to add $3 trillion to GDP by 2035, offers both a market for oil and a partner in renewables, hydrogen, and clean tech.
- China’s overreach: The Belt and Road Initiative delivered infrastructure but also resentment and debt traps. Gulf leaders want alternatives, and India’s democratic, non-hegemonic approach feels more sustainable.
- Multipolar reality: The West’s dominance has eroded. Washington remains important, but not singular. Europe is fragmented, Russia is sanctioned, and Gulf states are hedging. India offers scale, stability, and strategic autonomy.
India & Its Advantage
The Gulf’s eastward turn is not toward Asia in general; it is toward India in particular. Why? Because India combines three traits few others can offer:
- A vast and growing energy market that anchors demand.
- Cultural and human familiarity that smooths political trust.
- Strategic credibility as a democracy with a growing navy and civilizational presence.
In 2010, India was seen mainly as a customer for oil and a source of cheap labor. In 2025, it is courted as an investment magnet, a security partner, and a cultural bridgehead.
The Axis of the Future
None of this suggests the Gulf will abandon its Western links. But the pattern is undeniable: what was once a one-dimensional energy relationship has become a multi-layered strategic axis stretching from the Gulf to the Indian Ocean.
The numbers underscore the change. Bilateral trade nearly doubled in a decade. OPEC’s share of Indian oil imports climbed to nearly 80%. Gulf remittances rose into tens of billions. Investments are flowing not into London townhouses but Indian solar parks.
For the Middle East, betting on India means betting on growth, security, and cultural familiarity. For India, being courted by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi signals that it has crossed a historic threshold. It is no longer “emerging”. It is shaping the choices of entire regions.
The Gulf has always been a crossroads. For much of the last century, the road pointed west. Today, increasingly, it points east to Delhi and Mumbai. And in that pivot lies the clearest sign yet that India has become a pillar of the global order in its own right.
