Let’s dive into the murky waters of geopolitics in the Caucasus, where England, Israel, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Turkey are playing a high-stakes game of chess with oil, drones, and ethnic ties. Israel and the UK stirring the pot in Azerbaijan, possibly to mess with Russia, while Turkey’s got its own reasons to hesitate, caught between Azeri Jewish connections to Israel and the fear of the U.S. flexing too hard in the Black Sea.
Israel in Azerbaijan
Israel’s cozy with Azerbaijan like a fox in a henhouse, and it’s no secret why. Azerbaijan’s a stone’s throw from Iran, Israel’s arch-nemesis, and a key supplier of oil (about 30-50% of Israel’s crude) and a buyer of its shiny drones and missiles. Reports like those from the Atlantic Council paint a picture of Israel using Azerbaijan as a staging ground; airbases for drones and intel ops to keep tabs on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The June 2025 strikes on Iran, with fuel tanks from Israeli jets allegedly washing up in the Caspian Sea near Mazandaran, under that light, is scream “Baku’s letting us fly through their backyard” louder than a Tehran mullah at Friday prayers.
The UK is Needling the Caucasus, Again
England’s role is quieter but no less sneaky. The UK’s got deep ties with Azerbaijan’s energy sector. BP has been pumping Caspian oil since the ’90s. London is a hub for Azeri elites’ cash. The UK’s likely in it for the same reason as Israel: to poke Russia and Iran while securing oil and gas routes that bypass Moscow. Naked Capitalism notes U.S. and UK officials see Russian and Iranian influence in the Caucasus as “unstable,” so they’re backing Azerbaijan to counter both. Think of it as classic British meddling, just like the way they needled the Caucasus back during the days of the Great Game.
What is the Goal?
Screw with Russia’s grip on the Caucasus and Black Sea. Azerbaijan’s been drifting from Moscow’s orbit since the Ukraine war. They have emboldened even more due to the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh win. Russia is distracted these days, so Israel and the UK could be seeing this as a chance to flip Azerbaijan into a Western-aligned thorn in Putin’s side. Raiding Sputnik’s Baku office and beating up Russian journalists in July 2025 is not exactly neighbourly love, it is more like Azerbaijan flexing, with London and Tel Aviv cheering from the sidelines.
Why is Turkey Hesitant?
Turkey, unlike the UK, has got its skin in the game. Azerbaijan is their “one nation, two states” brother. And they have been arming Baku to the teeth since the ’90s. But Ankara’s not diving headfirst into this anti-Russia party, and that’s because of two reasons: the Azeri Jews and Black Sea power plays.
Azeri Jews: Azerbaijan’s got a unique Jewish community — Mountain Jews, Ashkenazi, even some Kurdish Jews — numbering about 12,000, with deep roots in Baku and Qırmızı Qəsəbə, the only all-Jewish town outside Israel. These folks have ties to Israel going back centuries, and Baku’s played it smart, cozying up to Jewish organizations like the World Jewish Congress. Israel’s leverage in Azerbaijan, from arms deals to diaspora politics, gives Tel Aviv a grip that Turkey can’t ignore. Erdogan’s been vocal against Israel over Gaza, but Azerbaijan’s oil keeps flowing to Haifa, and Erdogan remains silent there. If he pushes too hard against Israel, he risks alienating his Azeri ally, who’s tight with Jerusalem.
Erdogan’s next scare is the Black Sea: Turkey wants to be the Black Sea’s top dog. It wants to control Trans-Anatolian Pipeline and the Middle Corridor. And a significantly weakened Russia could let the U.S. muscle in. In which case Turkey turns into a junior partner. So, Turkey is happy to weaken Russia to a limit, but they don’t want Uncle Sam running the show. If the U.S. sets up shop in the Black Sea, (through NATO’s logistics corridor via Azerbaijan), then Turkey’s influence shrinks. Erdogan’s already fuming over U.S. support for Kurds in Syria; one guesses he’s not keen on more US generosity at his doorstep.
How is it Looking for the Players?
The UK is, like always, in a safe spot. Geographically far away, and with no skin in the game, it is in, if in case it works out. There remains the threat of Russian retaliation through cyberattacks; but I am sure they are aware of that. Right now, both the UK and Israel are betting on Azerbaijan as a wedge against Russia and Iran. Surprisingly though, Turkey’s reluctance could gum up the works. If Ankara balks at a full anti-Russia pivot, the West’s plans for a Caspian logistics hub might stall, leaving Israel and the UK with a half-baked victory.
And so the bottom line here is that Israel and the UK are using Azerbaijan as a geopolitical crowbar, prying at Russia and Iran while securing oil and influence. Turkey is on board but twitchy — those Azeri Jewish ties to Israel and the threat of U.S. dominance in the Black Sea keep Erdogan from going all in.
It is a classic Middle East mess: everyone’s got an angle, nobody’s got a clean win. Technically, this whole thing could blow up any time, but my guess is that in this era of multipolarity, this would continue to simmer for a foreseeable time.
