Alright, let’s get straight to it. With the Iran situation exploding the way it has, a lot of what we are seeing feels less like strategy and more like a bad bet gone nuclear. Here’s my take on this whole new chaos that looks to me, is about to unfold.
US Intent – They Never Wanted the Deal, Full Stop
Peter Girnus dropped an elaborate tweet (that I put out on the FB) laying out how Iran had already caved on a ton of the big demands in those Oman-mediated talks. Stockpile elimination, inspections, the works. And still, the US (with Israel riding shotgun) went ahead and bombed anyway. That tells you everything: there was zero real intention to sign anything. Now, whether it was Israel twisting arms in DC or just Trump deciding “I want the biggest the best the most beautiful war” the bottom line is Washington walked away from a near-deal it helped shape.
This isn’t new. We have seen the pattern with dollar weaponization, tariffs as punishment, sanctions that never really lift even when targets comply. But doing it so blatantly with Iran? That is next level. Credibility takes a massive hit. When you can’t be trusted to honour a bargain that you yourself negotiated, why would anyone (Saudis, Turks, Indians, Chinese) take your word seriously next time?
In a world where economic coercion is your main lever, losing the perception of reliability is suicide. You’re basically handing rivals the moral high ground on a platter.
US Conduct – From Sneaky NGOs to Straight-Up Bombing
Remember the old playbook? Regime change used to mean colour revolutions, funding NGOs, human rights campaigns, stirring the pot from the inside while keeping hands clean-ish. Venezuela got the slow choke initially: sanctions, Guaidó puppet show, endless pressure. And now? It is more like “we don’t like your face, so we bomb your command centres and hope the regime folds.”
Iran 2026 looks a lot like that shift: skip the groundwork, go direct kinetic. Looks brutal, looks desperate, and internationally it looks terrible. Norms are already shredded; pre-emptive strikes are becoming routine. If the US can do it to Iran, I guess Russia too, can do it to whoever? And so perhaps can China? At least theoretically speaking, that option suddenly finds a spot on the negotiation table of any aspiring regional power. So? We are on a fast slide into a world where big powers could just smash what they dislike.
Balance sheet? Short-term “win” headlines, long-term everyone gangs up or arms up against you. International relations heading straight to might-makes-right anarchy.
No Theory of Victory – Just Chaos on Autopilot
Policy Tensor nailed it: neither the US nor Israel has anything resembling a real theory of victory here. Khamenei and the top clerical layer are gone (cancer or not, timing is convenient). Who’s left standing? The IRGC; hardened, decentralised, and ideologically fanatic.
Sound familiar? Iraq post-Saddam resulted in ISIS. Same recipe here as well.
Iran is massive, it is a plateau fortress, a logistics nightmare. No one is putting boots on the ground for a full occupation. Even if Reza Pahlavi Jr. parachutes in (and I’ve been saying for months now he’d be the installed guy if it happens), keeping him alive and in power would be a daily insurgency fest. No plan B means the place fractures – Azeri bits, Kurdish bits, Sunni pockets. And yes, the Shia crescent lights up too: eastern Saudi, Yemen, Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon. Chaos cascades, oil gets messy, shipping gets messy.
Is this deliberate? Part of me wonders if Uncle actually wants the ME to stay unstable just long enough to scare capital back home. The Gulf was starting to look attractive again. Think of all that tech, investment, diversification away from pure oil. If someone were to blow it up, then money could flow back to Wall Street or Silicon Valley. Classic diversion play.
Then again, if it spins too far, energy prices spike, inflation bites Americans, and rivals like Russia clean up on discounted crude. High risk, high stupidity.
Israel’s Angle – Short-Term High, Mid-Term Headache
If the goal was just to kneecap Iran’s nuclear program and proxies, mission sort-of accomplished for now. But Israel’s bigger dream has always been a rebalanced Middle East where they sit pretty as the unchallenged power. Balkanizing Iran sounds nice on paper. You know, carve off Azeri northwest, Sunni south and so on.
But guess who benefits most? Turkey. Erdogan’s backyard suddenly gets bigger his clout goes up, and neo-Ottoman vibes intensify. Would Israel be happy about that? Hell no. And Khamenei? Old man, cancer-ridden, probably days away anyway. A friend floats: he chose the martyr route. Go out in a blaze, rally every Shia militia from Beirut to Sanaa, and give the Sunni states a front-row seat to the kind of asymmetric hell India/Europe/China have dealt with from Sunni jihadis for decades. Flip the script, make the Sunnis taste their own medicine.
If that’s the play, it’s working. The Shia street is already mobilizing.
So what happens to Israel’s mid-term? They probably calculated “hit hard, install friendly regime, Abraham Accords expand, Iran neutered forever.” But realpolitik says contingencies matter. Vacuum, with significant IRGC remnants, a four/five layered contingency framework, and a regional blowback equals a perpetual headache. Tactical victory, strategic gamble.
Bottom line: Yet another raw deal where the big players roll the dice without reading the fine print. US credibility in tatters, old norms torched, no endgame in sight, and a region primed to burn for years. Because when big empires play idiotic, stupid prizes are for everyone around.
