The web of geopolitics in the Middle East has long been a chessboard for global powers, with Iran often at the centre of the board. Over the past few decades, a subtle but persistent strategy has emerged, orchestrated by Uncle Sam and allies, to destabilize Iran through the empowerment of ethnic separatist movements. The northwestern Azeris and Kurds, or the southeastern Baluchis, they share a common thread: they are being kept alive, nurtured, and potentially weaponized to serve a broader agenda.
Let us take a look.
The Azeri “Awakening”
In Iran’s northwest, the Azeri population has given rise to organizations like the South Azerbaijan National Awakening Movement (SANAM) and the Azerbaijan National Resistance Organization. These groups, though small in their infancy, have endured, sustained by a curious coalition of backers. Jewish media has provided them sporadic platform, amplifying their cause. Turkey, with its own regional ambitions and more than friendly relations with Azerbaijan, makes Iran nervous, especially after the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The presence of Mahmudali Chehregani, a key Azeri leader, in the United States underscores the institutional backing these movements enjoy from Uncle Sam.
The Azeris, though not yet a significant military threat, represent a latent force that could be activated to pressure Iran’s northwestern frontier. “But recently everything changed: in Tabriz, the historical and cultural center of the Southern Azerbaijanis, all the organizations joined forces. National Liberation Front of South Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan National Resistance Organization, Azerbaijan student movement, South Azerbaijan Independence Party, Democratic Turkic Union of South Azerbaijan, Democratic Party of South Azerbaijan, Liberal Democratic Party of South Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan Center Party are leading a joint effort—a different kind of protest, which is much harder to suppress” noted i24news.tv.
The Kurdish Conundrum
The Kurds in Iran, represented by groups like the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI), the Komala Party, and the PJAK, are far from mere separatists — they have a history of armed rebellion against the Iranian state. Their cause is bolstered by significant external support, particularly from the United States and several European Union states. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) have shown a willingness to back Kurdish movements, providing them the political legitimacy. The Kurds are unique in their transnational reach, with communities spanning Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. This geographic spread makes them a potent tool for destabilization, capable of creating ripple effects across multiple states. Their armed insurgencies, if coordinated with other groups, could stretch Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) thin, particularly if simultaneous uprisings occur in other regions.
Baluch Nationalism or Jihad?
In Iran’s southeast, Baluchi insurgent groups like Jaish al-Adl and Jundullah have long been a thorn in Tehran’s side. Alleged links to the CIA and broader U.S. support suggest that these groups are more than local nuisances; they could well be strategic assets in Uncle Sam’s arsenal. Their operations have bled Iran for years, targeting security forces and infrastructure. Like the Kurds, the Baluchis are transnational, with significant populations in Pakistan and Afghanistan, making them ideally positioned to disrupt not just Iran but the broader Af-Pak region.
A critical shift looms on the horizon. The Baluchi nationalist movement (Baoch Nationalism), currently focused on self-determination, could morph into a larger and more diffused Sunni-jihadist campaign with transnational ambitions. This kind of a transformation aligns perfectly with the US playbook: a nationalist movement seeking a homeland is of limited use to Uncle Sam if it achieves its nationalist goals and stabilizes. The Taliban is a handy example of that. A Baluchi transnational jihad, fuelled by external support, could disrupt Iran, Pakistan, and even China’s regional plans, particularly the Belt and Road Initiative.
The Dormant Turkmen-Communism Wildcard
In Iran’s north, the Turkmen population once boasted a robust communist movement, with groups like the Organization of Iranian People’s Fedai Guerrillas and its various factions. Though diminished, these organizations persist, sustained by local networks. Their potential reactivation hinges on a U.S. foothold in Turkmenistan, a nation heavily reliant on Russia and China for security and economic stability.
The U.S. attempted to court Turkmenistan in the 1990s, leveraging the Trans-Afghan Pipeline as bait, but the effort faltered amid regional instability and the unwillingness of the Taliban to comply. Today, with the U.S. ideologically more communist than modern Russia, these Turkmen groups could be revived as proxies. Should the U.S. secure influence in Turkmenistan, these old communist networks could be repurposed to align with American interests, creating another pressure point against Iran.
The Endgame: A Muti-front Assault
The combined potential of these ethnic movements is staggering. If the U.S. and Israel coordinate their efforts, arming and training thousands of Kurdish, Baluchi, and Azeri fighters, they could ignite simultaneous insurgencies across Iran’s northwest, southeast, and north. Such a multi-front assault would strain the IRGC’s 150,000-strong force, particularly if urban unrest in cities like Tehran erupts concurrently. The 2022 protests exposed cracks in Iran’s internal cohesion, and a coordinated campaign could exploit these vulnerabilities. Economically, Iran is already reeling from 40% inflation and crippling sanctions. Disrupting oil and gas exports, which account for 50% of government revenue, could be a deathblow. Baluchi attacks on southeast trade routes or Kurdish disruptions at border crossings with the idea to rapidly reduce GDP by 10-15%, could push the country toward significant chaos. Add to this a propaganda campaign (enabled by tools like Starlink to amplify dissent), and elite defection (by bribing the regime insiders to switch sides), and the stage is set for a colour revolution.
The Chessboard in Play
The pieces are in place, meticulously sustained over decades. To reach the tipping point, Uncle Sam would need to:
Arm and train thousands of Kurdish and Baluchi fighters, leveraging existing networks.
Disrupt 30-50% of Iran’s oil and gas exports through targeted attacks.
Spark urban protests via propaganda and access to uncensored communication tools.
Secure defections among Iran’s political and military elite, hollowing out the regime from within.
Current efforts have laid the groundwork; just that the tipping point remains uncertain. But this much is true that Iran faces the prospects of a very real, multi-pronged assault. The ethnic minorities are being morphed from being tribes with grievances to pawns in a grand chessboard. Whether through economic collapse, internal chaos, or a full-blown colour revolution, Uncle’s agenda is clear: to dismantle Iran’s ability to project power and secure Israel’s dominance in the Middle East. The chessboard has been set, the moves are being calculated, and the world watches, largely unaware of the game being played.
