In recent weeks, Bangladesh has been navigating a complex landscape of political, social, and security challenges, with significant implications for its relationship with India. The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus since August 2024, has taken a notable step by banning all activities of the former ruling Awami League party, headed by ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
This decision, enacted on May 10, 2025, under the Anti-Terrorism Act, is intended to remain in effect until party leaders face trial for alleged abuses committed during their 15-year rule. Reports from sources the Associated Press, confirm this ban, noting it as a response to the political upheaval following Hasina’s ouster in August 2024. This move has sparked a polarised debate, with some viewing it as a step toward justice and others seeing it as a potential democratic backslide. Given India’s historical support for the Awami League during Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation, this ban could strain bilateral relations, creating a sense of uncertainty in regional politics.
Additionally, strained relations with India have been exacerbated by accusations, noted in an Atlantic Council article, that India has pushed at least 260 undocumented migrants and Rohingyas into Bangladesh since last week, adding to border security challenges and humanitarian concerns. This situation is further complicated by reports suggesting Bangladesh’s ambiguous posture reflects a strategic balancing act in its foreign policy.
Domestically, Bangladesh is witnessing significant social unrest, particularly around gender equality issues. On May 3, 2025, more than 20,000 supporters of the Islamist group Hefazat-e-Islam rallied in Dhaka to protest proposed reforms by the Women’s Affairs Reform Commission, which aim to ensure equal rights for women, including property rights. Protesters claiming that “men and women can never be equal” have denounced these recommendations, threatening nationwide rallies if their demands are not met.
This internal tension could influence Bangladesh’s relations with India, given shared cultural and religious dynamics, potentially exacerbating anti-India sentiment, such as Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry monitoring India-Pakistan tensions. In recent years, Bangladesh has emerged as a growing concern for India, driven by shifts in its foreign policy, domestic sentiment, and political landscape. These changes have positioned Bangladesh as a potential threat to India’s strategic interests and regional stability.
1. Potential for Increased Islamist Influence in Bangladesh
The prospect of rising Islamist influence in Bangladesh presents a security threat to India, particularly given the political shifts following Hasina’s exit. The interim government has welcomed the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and lifted the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamist group with ties to Pakistan. This openness raises concerns about a resurgence of radical elements that could exploit the current political uncertainty. Historically, Islamist groups in Bangladesh have been linked to militancy, and their growing influence could destabilise the region.
For India, this development is troubling. Increased Islamist activity could fuel cross-border terrorism, especially in its northeastern states, which already face insurgency challenges. A Bangladesh more aligned with Pakistan or radical forces, potentially supported by China’s regional ambitions, could amplify these risks. The political space now available to Islamist parties might foster an environment conducive to extremism, directly threatening India’s internal security and regional stability.
2. Rising Anti-India Sentiment in Bangladesh
A surge in anti-India sentiment within Bangladesh has further strained bilateral relations, posing a diplomatic and strategic challenge for India. This resentment stems from longstanding issues, including water-sharing disputes over the Teesta River, frequent border clashes, and perceptions of Indian political interference. The younger generation, instrumental in the protests that toppled Hasina, has been especially critical, viewing India’s support for her regime as overreach. Social media has amplified these narratives, portraying India as a domineering neighbour.
Unresolved tensions exacerbate the situation. Bangladesh accuses India of withholding Teesta water, impacting agriculture and the environment, while India’s strict visa policies hinder cross-border exchanges. Although cultural ties remain strong, the growing perception of India as an adversary could push the country towards policies and alliances that undermine Indian interests. If this sentiment festers, it risks transforming a historically cooperative relationship into a more hostile one, complicating India’s regional strategy.
3. Foreign Policy Shift Towards China
Bangladesh’s deepening ties with China have raised alarm bells in New Delhi, as they threaten to erode India’s influence and create strategic vulnerabilities. Following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 and the rise of Muhammad Yunus as Chief Advisor, Bangladesh has pursued a broader foreign policy that prioritises relations with Beijing. Yunus’s 2025 state visit to China highlighted this shift, with agreements signed on infrastructure, military cooperation, and investments exceeding $1 billion. Bangladesh’s framing as a “maritime gateway” to India’s northeastern states underscores the strategic implications of this alignment.
This pivot has tangible consequences. Reports indicate its government has favoured China over India for key projects, such as the Teesta River initiative and airfield development, while halting textile trade with India’s Northeast. China’s growing presence in Bangladeshi ports like Chittagong and Mongla strengthens its “string of pearls” strategy, aimed at encircling India in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, potential Chinese military assets in the country, such as fighter jets, could directly threaten India’s security, particularly in its vulnerable northeastern region. This realignment diminishes India’s traditional dominance in Dhaka and challenges its geopolitical position in South Asia.
Conclusion
Bangladesh’s emergence as a threat to India is driven by its strategic tilt towards China, growing anti-India sentiment, and the potential rise of Islamist influence. These factors challenge India’s regional dominance, security, and diplomatic relations. To address this evolving dynamic, India must pursue a balanced approach—engaging Bangladesh’s new leadership diplomatically while safeguarding its strategic interests. Failure to adapt could see India’s influence in South Asia further erode, with significant implications for the region’s future.
