In this geopolitical update, we are going to dive straight into the murky waters of Turkey’s moves in Bangladesh, where whispers of Ankara arming Islamist radicals are stirring up a storm. The focus? Turkey’s defence deals, their support for groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, and what this could mean for India and the region.
Bangladesh’s Political Vacuum
Muhammad Yunus has given enough signals to whoever is watching, that he is hand in gloves with his handlers in creating the political void in Bangladesh post Hasina; one that has allowed radical Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefazat-e-Islam to stretch their legs. While Hasina kept these outfits on a leash, Yunus makes them sit on his lap. And as if giving a free ticket to ISI or catalysing the Rohingyas was not enough, we now have Turkey under Erdogan, in Bangladesh.
Turkey is Eyeing More Than Arms Sales
Turkey cozying up to Bangladesh has kicked into high gear since Hasina’s fall. Here is what we know:
Defence Deals and Industrial Zones: In July 2025, Haluk Gorgun, head of Turkey’s Defence Industry Agency (SSB), visited Dhaka to meet Yunus and army chief Gen Waqar-uz-Zaman, navy chief Admiral Nazmul Hasan, and air force chief Air Chief Marshal Hassan Mahmud Khan. The agenda? Deepening defence-industrial ties, including plans for two Turkish-backed defence complexes in Chittagong and Narayanganj. These zones, backed by Bangladesh’s Investment Development Authority (BIDA), could produce everything from drones to missiles, leveraging the strategic seaport access of these regions.
Turkey is already a big arms supplier to Bangladesh, which imported $60 million in weapons in early 2021 alone. Recent deals include Roketsan’s TRG-300 Tiger MLRS, Bayraktar TB2 drones, armoured vehicles, and night vision systems. A June 2021 MoU and a 2021 artillery production agreement with REPKON signal Bangladesh’s growing appetite for Turkish tech.
BIDA’s chairman, Chowdhury Ashiq Mahmud Bin Harun, visited Turkey’s state-owned Makine ve Kimya Endüstrisi (MKE) in Kirikkale to discuss tech transfers and military cooperation. A Turkish technical team is reportedly surveying Chittagong and Narayanganj for these projects, with Bangladesh offering tax exemptions under the Economic Zone Act, 2010.
Where is the Worry?
So far, so good. Countries buy weapons, set up factories. But here is where it gets interesting: reports suggest Turkey’s not just selling arms but potentially funnelling support to radical Islamist groups, raising red flags for India. The buzz, backed by Indian media and intelligence sources, whispers that Turkey’s intelligence agency, MIT, is covertly backing Islamist outfits like Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh.
Turkish entities with links with MIT, are funding Jamaat-e-Islami’s infrastructure, including renovating its Dhaka office in Moghbazar. There’s talk of Turkish cash and logistics propping up Jamaat’s organizational muscle, with visits by Bangladeshi Islamist leaders like Sadiq Qayam to Turkish arms facilities. And why not; after all, Erdogan’s pan-Islamist agenda aligns with Jamaat’s vision of an “Islamic welfare state” modelled on Turkey, as stated by Jamaat’s general secretary, Mia Golam Parwar. Couple that with the recent industrial deal, and you get a picture.
That aside there is also the fact of the deployment of the Bayraktar TB2 drones neat the Siliguri corridor since December 2024. Then there is the very real issue of Yunus lifting the ban on Jamaat and Chhatra Shibir, and the resultant growth of radical Islamist influence in Bangladesh. So, some of the social media claims about a a broader “Ankara–Dhaka–Islamabad triangle” targeting India is not without merit.
India has its Skin in the Game
India shares 4,096-km border with Bangladesh. It is porous, and the kind of radicalization that is on in Bangladesh is clear and present danger. Terrorist groups like Jamaat or Hefazat, or even dormant outfits like HuJI would exploit Turkish arms to destabilize India’s northeast (Chittagong Hill Tracts near Tripura and Mizoram). They would also definitely push for cross-border infiltration, and aid and abet dormant terror networks in eastern India.
Turkey’s alignment with Pakistan, seen during Operation Sindoor, adds fuel to the fire. An Ankara–Dhaka–Islamabad axis could encircle India, with Bangladesh as a new pressure point on its eastern flank. There is also the very macabre truth of rape murders of thousands of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority. Emboldened with Turkish backing, this is only going to grow.
The Geopolitical Chessboard
Turkey’s moves fit Erdogan’s broader playbook. After all he is all about flexing military-industrial might and pan-Islamist ideology to carve out influence. Bangladesh, with its $4.45 billion military budget and strategic location, is a juicy target. For Turkey, it is a chance to counter India, cozy up to Pakistan, and project power in South Asia. For Bangladesh, Turkish arms and investment are tempting, and Yunus — incompetent to run the country — should be salivating at this breather.
India must double down on its defence ties with Armenia, Greece, and Cyprus, and push missiles like the Akash to Armenia. Some optimally timed domestic disturbances in Turkey could enable the neighbours to weigh in on the issue. As regards the old ISI links to Dhaka, there is the very real aspect of the Baluchi rebels and the TTP — something that needs more than an active attention from New Delhi.
The Bottomline?
Turkey’s deepening ties with Bangladesh, from defence zones to Jamaat support, are a geopolitical curveball. Ankara is arming radicals that could destabilize Bangladesh, threaten India’s security, and embolden an anti-India axis with Pakistan. It is yet another wake-up call for New Delhi. Bangladesh is a tinderbox — something that Turkey, ISI, Washington, or China would be extremely interested in. As a result, it is destined to remain one for some time to come. It is in India’s best interest to ensure heavy border security and extremely serious counterterrorism initiatives.